ርእሰ-ዓንቀጽ ሰዲህኤ

ለውጢ ኣብ ኤርትራ፡ ኣብ ዓዲ ይሃሉ ኣብ ወጻኢ፡ ብናይ ኩሉ ክፍልታት ሕብረተሰብ እዩ ዝመጽእ። ምኽንያቱ ኩሉ ክፍልታት ሕብረተ-ሰብ በቲ ሎሚ ኣብ ኤርትራ ዘሎ ወጽዓ ተሃሳዪ፡ በቲ ዝመጽእ ለውጢ ከኣ ተጠቃሚ ስለ ዝኾነ። እቶም ኣብዚ እዋንዚ መሳርሒ ጉጅለ ህግደፍ ኮይኖም ህዝቦም ዘበሳብሱ ዘለዉ ሰራዊትን ትካላት ጸጥታን እውን ኣንጻር ጠቕሞም ዝሰርሑ ዘለዉ ኣካላት እምበር በቲ ጨቋኒ ስርዓት ተጠቀምቲ ኣይኮኑን። ነዚ ብምርዳእ ኢና ከኣ ነዞም ኣብ ግጉይ መንገዲ ዘለዉ ኣካላት ወትሩ ሕቖ ናይቲ ምእንቲ ለውጢ ዝቃለስ ዘሎ ህዝቦም ክኾኑ ንጽወዖም። ከምኡ እውን ኢደ-በይዛ ወጻዒ ጉጅለ ህግደፍ ካብ ምዃን ንነብሶ ሓራ ክኾኑ እንምሕጸኖም። ካብኡ ናብኡ ከኣ ግደ መንእሰይ ኣብዚ ዘለናሉ ወሳኒ ናይ ለውጢ ቃልሲ ዝያዳ እዩ።

ኣብዚ ተተሓሒዝናዮ ዘለና ቃልሲ ብዛዕባ ተሳትፎ ክንሓስብ እንከለና፡ ቆላሕታና ኣብ ግደ መንእሰይን ጓለንስተይትን ዝያዳ ነዕዝዝ። ናይዚ ምኽኒያት ብሩህ እዩ። ጓለንስተይቲ ፍርቂ ኣካል ሕብረተሰብ ስለ ዝኾነት፡ መንእሰይ ብሓፈሻ ከኣ ናይ ዝሓለፈ፡ ዘሎን መጻእን ናይ ምስግጋር ድንድልን መላግቦን ኮይኑ ናይ ምቕጻል ሓላፍነት ሰለ ዘለዎ። መንእሰይ ቅድሚኡ ኣብ መድረኽ ቃልሲ ካብ ዝጸንሑ ተረኪቡ ከቕጽል እሞ፡ ሎሚ ቃልሲ ክዕወት፡  ጽባሕ ከኣ  ምህናጽ ሃገር ህያው ክኸውን ሓላፍነቱ ወሳኒ እዩ። ንመንእሰይ እዚ ታሪኻዊ ናይ ምስግጋር ሓላፍነት'ዚ ከም  ውዱእ ተሰሪሑ ዝወሃቦ ዘይኮነ፡ ብቓልሱ ዘረጋግጾ እዩ።  ቃልሱ ካብቲ ክርከቦ ዝግበኦ ንምርካብ ጥራይ ዘይኮነ፡ መጻኢ ካብ ህልዊ ዝሓሸ ከም ዝኸውን ናይ ምግባሩ ሓለፍነት እውን ዝውስኽ እዩ። መንእሰይ ናይ ምቕጻል ሓላፍነት ዝህልዎ፡ ነቲ ናይ ሎሚ ምዕባለ ንጽባሕ እውን ከምቲ ዘለዎ ሒዝካዮ ንምጉዓዝ ዘይኮነ ዝሓሸ ጽባሕ ናይ ምፍጣር ሓላፍነት ዘሰክሞ ስለ ዝኾነ። ኣብ ጽባሕ ኮይንካ “ዓሚ ይሓይሽ” ዝበሃለሉ እንተኮይኑ ግና እቲ ናይ መንእሰይ ናይ ምቕጻልን ምስግጋርን ሓላፍነት ምሉእ ኣይከውንን።

ኣብ መንጐ እቲ ሕድሪ  ዘረክብ ነባርን ሕድሪ ዝርከብ ውዑይ ሓይሊ መንእሰይን ናይ ኣረዳድኣ ፍልልይ ከጋጥም ንቡር እዩ። እቲ ሓደ ኣብ ናይቲ ካልእ ዘይምዕጋብ ምኽንያቱ ካብቲ ዝዋስእሉ መድረኻትን ዘስንዮ ምዕባለታትን ባህሪ ዝነቅል ክኸውን ከም ዝኽእል ዝተፈልጠ እዩ። ንኣብነት ብረታዊ ቃልሲ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ዝተኻየደሉ ግዜን ሎሚ ንዲሞክራስያዊ ለውጢ ቃልሲ ነካይደሉ ዘሎና መድረኽን በበይኑ ባህሪ ናይ ቃልሲ  ዘለዎም እዮም። ናይ ሽዑን ናይ ሎሚን መንእሰይ ከኣ በበቲ ናይ ንእስነቱ ግዜ ምዕባለታት ክጽለው ናይ ግድን እዩ። እዚ መድረኻት ዝፈጥሮ ፍልልይ፡ ልቦና፡ ሓላፍነትን ቅሩብነትን እንተልዩ ብቐሊሉ ክተዓረቕ ዝኽእል ንቡር ተረኽቦ እዩ። እቲ ዘይስገር ሓቂ ከምዚ እናሃለወ፡ ኣብ መንጎ ኣረካብን ተረካብን፡ ምውጣጥን ዘይምትእምማንን ሓደሓደ እውን ምክሕሓድ እንተጋጢሙ ከኣ ቅቡልን ሓጋዝን ኣይኮነን። በቲ ኮነ በዚ፡ እቲ መስርሕ ዘይተርፍ ስለ ዝኾነ ንናይ መንእሰይ ተረኪብካ ናይ ምቕጻል ሓላፍነት ዝዕግቶ የለን። ምርኽኻብ መስርሕ እምበር ኣብ ውሱን ናይ ቆጸራ ግዜ ዝትግበር ከምዘይኮነ ምርዳእ ከኣ ኣገዳሲ እዩ።

ነቲ ኣብ ምርኽኻብ ዝፍጠር ምፍሕፋሕ ዘፋኹሶን ንመጻኢ ዝያዳ ብሩህ ዝገብሮን ኣብ መንጎ ኣረካብን ተረካቢ ሕድርን  ምትእምማን ክህሉ እንከሎ ጥራይ እዩ። እቲ ኣረካቢ፡ መንእሰይ ሕድረይን ውርሻይን ብግቡእ ከቐጽለለይ ይኽእል እዩ ዝብል እምነት ክሓድሮ ይግባእ። እቲ መንእሰይ ተረካቢ ከኣ ነቲ ዝርከቦ ሕድርን ውርሻን ከቐጽል እምበር፡ ንኹሉ ዝሕለፈ ክኹንን፡ ክነጽግን ከቆናጽብን ዝህንደድ ከይምዘይኮነ ከረጋግጽ ይገበኦ። እዚ ማለት ግና እቲ ሕድሪ ተረኪብካ ናይ ምቕጻል ሓላፍነት ዘለዎ መንእሰይ፡ ካብቲ ዝርከቦ ውርሻ ነየናይ ከቐጽል ነየናይከ ይገድፍ  ምእንቲ ክውስን ናይ ምምዛንን ምምማይን ሓላፍነት ከም ዘለዎ ዝዝንጋዕ ኣይኮነን።

ንመንእሰይ “ናይ ለውጢ ሓይሊ ኢዩ” ዘብሎ፡ በቲ ብተፈጥሮ ዝተዓደሎ በዓል ንኡስ ዕድመ ኮይኑ ስለዝጎይን ኣካላዊ ብርታዔ ስለ ዘለዎን ጥራይ ኣይኮነን። እቲ ቀንዲ መንእሰይ ዘብሎስ፡ ብናይ ትማሊ ፍጻመታት ጥራይ  ዘይእሰር፡ ንሎሚ ብግቡእ ዝመዝን፡ ዝሓሸ መጻኢ ዝእምትን ክኸውን እንከሎ’ዩ። መንእሰይ ናይ ምቕጻል ወይ ምስግጋር ሓላፍነት ኣለዎ ማለት ንናይ ሎሚ ከም ዘለዎ ናብ ጽባሕ ምውሳድ ማለት ከምዘይኮነ ኣሚትና ኣለና። ነቲ ሎሚ ዘየለ ጽባሕ ክፍጠር ዝኽእል ምዕባለ ዝምጥን ኣተሓሳስባን ቅሩብነትን ከመንጭው ክበቅዕ ሓላፍነቱ እዩ። ከምዚ ክበሃል እንከሎ ግና ዓመታት ጸብጺብካ ብዕድመ  መንእሰያት ዘይኮኑ፡ ብኣተሓሳባ ግና ክሳብ ድሕሪ ጽባሕ ዘመዓዱ ግንዛበ ዘለዎም ናይ ዕድመን ተመኩሮን ሰብ ጸጋ ከም ዘለዉ፡ እቲ መንእሰይ ክርዳእ ይግበኦ። እቲ ካብቶም ዘረክብዎ ክወርሶ ዝግበኦ ጸጋ ከኣ እዚ እዩ። ካብኡ ሓሊፉ፡ ኣብ ዝሓለፈ ሎሚ ግና ዘየድሊ ጸገም ኣብ ምጽብጻብ ግዜኡን ዓቕሙን ዘባኽን፡ ንጌጋታት ከም ዘለዎ ዝደግም፡ ንመጻኢ ዘየሰጉም ጸቢብ ዝንባሌታት መሊሱ ዘዕኩኽ፡ በታ ተፈጥሮኣዊት ናይ ዕድመ ንእስነት ዕድሉ ጥራይ ዝንየት መንእሰይ ናይ ቀጻልነት ዋሕስ ኣይኮነን። ስለዚ ሓላፍነት መንእሰይ ንስሙ ምቕጻል ዘይኮነ፡ ናብ ዝሓሸ ምቕጻል እዩ።

መንእሰይ ንኣቐጻልነት፡ ተደለየ ዝቕበሎ ተዘይትደለየ ከኣ ዝገድፎ ኣይኮነን። እዚ ካልእ ዘይስከመሉን ክሃድመሉ ዘይክእልን ትውልዳዊ ሓላፍነቱ እዩ። እቲ ንመንእሰይ ሓላፍነት ዘሰክም በዓል ሃብታም ተመኩሮ እውን ከምኡ ናይ ምርካብ ግደታ ኣለዎ። እዚ ምርኽኻብ እንተዘየልዩ ቀጻልነትን ንቡር ምስግጋርን ወለዶታት ክህሰ ይኽእል። ኣብዚ እዋንዚ ናይቲ ካብ ህዝብና ከባቢ 70% ምዃኑ ዝንገረሉ መንእሰይና ብሰንኪ ጉጅለ ህግደፍ  ፋሕጭንግራሕ ምባል ኣዝዩ ዘተሓሳስበና  ከኣ ካብዚ ስግኣትን ሓደጋን ዝነቅል እዩ። ኤርትራዊ መንእሰይ ምስኩሉቲ ብሰንኪ ህግደፍ ዘጋጠሞ ጸገምን ብሰንኩ ሃገሩ ገዲፉ ክስደድ ምግዳዱን ሓላፍነቱ ከይፍጽም ከም ዘጸግሞ ርዱእ እዩ። እንተኾነ ንኹሉ ክኢሉ ከካብቲ ዘለዎ ኩርናዕ ዝገብሮ ዘሎ ቃልሲ፡ ዘመስግኖ እዩ። በቲ ካልእ ወገን ከኣ ጌና ብዙሕ ከም ዝተርፎ ተገንዚቡ ዝያዳ ክጽዕር ኣብ ቅድሚኡ ዘሎ ዕማሙ’ዩ።

ሰልፊ ዲሞክራሲ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ፡ ዒድ ኣል-ፈጥር ምኽንያት ብምግባር፡ ንመላእ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ብሓፈሻ፡ ንኣመንቲ ምስልምና ድማ ብፍላይ፡ ርሑስ በዓል ዒድ ኣል-ፈጥር እናበለ ሰናይ ምንዮቱ ይገልጽ።

ኣብዚ ናይ ፈተነ መድረኽ፡ ኣብ ልዕሊ’ቲ ሓደጋታት ቀዛፊ ሕማም ለበዳ፡ ህዝብናን ኣህዛብ ከባቢናን፡ ብወግእን ሳዕቤናቱን ይሳቐዩ ኣብ ዘለዉ፣ ኩነታት ስደትን ሞትን ናብ ዝለዓለ ጥርዚ ኣብ ዝበጽሓሉ፣ ሰላምን ቅሳነትን ዘውርደልና በዓል ክኸውን ንምነ።

ንኩሎም እቶም ጾም ሮሞዳን ብሓያል እምነትን ብዓወትን ዛዚሞም ዒድ ኣል-ፈጥር ምብዓል ዝበቕዑ ኣመንቲ ምስልምና፡ ብስም መላእ ኣባላት ሰዲህኤ መልእኽቲ ዒድ ሙባረክ አመሓላልፍ።

 ተስፋይ ወልደሚካኤል ደጊጋ

ኣቦ መንበር ሰልፊ ዲሞክራሲ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ

 Abiy and Kenyatta

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 President Uhuru Kenyatta with Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed attend the Kenya-Ethiopia Trade and Investment Forum in Addis Ababa on March 1, 2019.
10 MAY 2021

The planned security meeting between Kenya and Ethiopia over the fast-deteriorating relationship between Garre and Degodia clans in Mandera has been postponed. 

The meeting was scheduled for Sunday before being moved to Monday but the Ethiopian delegation sent a message that heavy downpour on their side had hampered movement. 

"We have not been able to hold a security meeting with our Ethiopian counterparts due to heavy rains on their side that has rendered roads impassable," Mandera County Commissioner Onesmus Kyatha said. 

The meeting was called after counter attacks by suspected clan militias that left at least two dead and three others injured in Banisa Sub-county. 

"We wanted to agree on ending the animosity between these two clans that reside in both countries. We shall still engage Ethiopian authorities on the same once the situation normalises," Mr Kyatha added.

MAY 12, 2021  ETHIOPIANEWSTIGRAY

“Eritrean troops are operating with total impunity in Ethiopia’s war-torn northern Tigray region”

Source: CNN

Updated 0403 GMT (1203 HKT) May 12, 2021

Axum, Ethiopia — Eritrean troops are operating with total impunity in Ethiopia’s war-torn northern Tigray region, killingraping and blocking humanitarian aid to starving populations more than a month after the country’s Nobel Peace Prize winning leader pledged to the international community that they would leave.

A CNN team traveling through Tigray’s central zone witnessed Eritrean soldiers, some disguising themselves in old Ethiopian military uniforms, manning checkpoints, obstructing and occupying critical aid routes, roaming the halls of one of the region’s few operating hospitals and threatening medical staff.
Despite pressure from the Biden administration, there is no sign that Eritrean forces plan to exit the border region anytime soon.
On April 21, a CNN team reporting in Tigray with the permission of Ethiopian authorities traveled from the regional capital Mekelle to the besieged city of Axum, two weeks after it had been sealed off by Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers. An aid convoy also made the seven-hour journey.
CNN team driving into the besieged city of Axum, which remains inaccessible to many aid organizations. Credit: Alex Platt/CNN
Ethiopia’s government has severely restricted access to the media until recently, and a state-enforced communications blackout concealed events in the region, making it challenging to gauge the extent of the crisis or verify survivors’ accounts.
But CNN’s interviews with humanitarian workers, doctors, soldiers and displaced people in Axum and across central Tigray — where up to 800,000 displaced people are sheltering — indicate the situation is even worse than was feared. Eritrean troops aren’t just working hand in glove with the Ethiopian government, assisting in a merciless campaign against the Tigrayan people, in some pockets they’re fully in control and waging a reign of terror.
The testimonies, shared at great personal risk, present a horrifying picture of the situation in Tigray, where a clash between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the region’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), in November has deteriorated into a protracted conflict that, by many accounts, bears the hallmarks of genocide and has the potential to destablize the wider Horn of Africa region.
Ethiopian security officials working with Tigray’s interim administration told CNN that the Ethiopian government has no control over Eritrean soldiers operating in Ethiopia, and that Eritrean forces had blocked roads into central Tigray for over two weeks and in the northwestern part of the region for nearly one month.
As the war and its impact on civilians deepens, world leaders have voiced their concern about the role of Eritrean forces in exacerbating what US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, according to spokesperson Ned Price, has described as a “growing humanitarian disaster.” In a phone call with Abiy on April 26, Blinken pressed Ethiopia and Eritrea to make good on commitments to withdraw Eritrean troops “in full, and in a verifiable manner.”
CNN’s efforts to reach Axum were thwarted by both Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers multiple times over several days.
On one of the first attempts, the CNN team encountered what it later learned was the aftermath of a grenade attack, where a group of local residents were flagging down cars, warning passersby not to go any further. But before we reached the scene, a large army truck drove up and parked sideways, blocking the road. Our cameraman got out of the car and started filming only to be confronted by Ethiopian soldiers, who threatened the team with detention, demanding that we hand over the camera and delete the footage. But we refused and were able to conceal the footage until we were eventually released.
On another occasion, CNN was turned back by an Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) Command operating out of a former USAID distribution center in the outskirts of the city of Adigrat, where several trucks laden with sacks of desperately needed food sat languishing in the hot sun. The aid, bound for communities in Tigray’s starved central zone, had been stopped from going any further despite daily phone calls from humanitarian workers pleading for access.
Even after being granted entry to Axum by the Ethiopian military, CNN’s path was obstructed by Eritrean troops controlling a checkpoint on a desolate mountain top overlooking Adigrat. The forces were wearing a mixture of their official light-colored Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF) fatigues and a woodland camouflage with a green beret, which military experts verified as tallying with old Ethiopian army uniforms.
It is one of the first visual confirmations of reports — relayed in recent weeks by the UN’s top humanitarian official Mark Lowcock and US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield — that Eritrean soldiers are disguising their identities by re-uniforming as Ethiopian military, in what Thomas-Greenfield described as a move to “remain in Tigray indefinitely.”
CNN was informed by aid agencies that they had also been turned back by Eritrean soldiers manning the same checkpoint. Ethiopian military sources in the region confirmed to CNN that Eritrean soldiers were in control of key checkpoints along the route to Axum. The military sources said they had requested multiple times for the Eritreans to allow cars and convoys through, but had been refused.
CNN has reached out to the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments for comment.
After repeated phone calls to Ethiopian central government and senior military officials, CNN was finally allowed into Axum on its fourth try. On the same day, international medical humanitarian organization Medecins Sans Frontieres demanded that the 12-day blockade of the road into Axum be lifted.
Many aid agencies are still being barred from the besieged city, where one of the few hospitals operating for miles is running out of essential supplies, including oxygen and blood, humanitarian workers working in the region told CNN.
On arrival at the Axum University Teaching and Referral Hospital, patients are greeted by a sign asking for blood.
The medical staff we spoke to asked not to be named for fear of reprisals, but requested that CNN identify their hospital — they say that they want people to know that they are still here.
Inside one of the under-resourced examination rooms, a malnourished 7-year-old was lying on a gurney, wrapped in a blanket to cushion her fragile skin. Latebrahan’s emaciated legs could no longer hold her weight and she lay wide-eyed, staring up at the crowd of doctors gathered around her bed.

Seven-year-old Latebrahan lies on a gurney at Axum University Teaching and Referral Hospital, where she's being treated for malnourishment.

The medical team were doing their best to keep her alive, but they had run out of a therapeutic feeding agent due to the blockade, the only way to help her gain weight without disturbing her delicate system.
Latebrahan’s father, Girmay, who asked to be identified only by his first name, told CNN the journey from their home in Chila, around 60 miles north of Axum, near the border with Eritrea, had been dangerous and costly.
“There is no help, no food, nothing. I didn’t have a choice though — look at her,” Girmay said.
Like many other rural border towns, Chila has been blocked off from receiving aid since the conflict began six months ago. Humanitarian workers say famine could have already arrived there and they would have no way of knowing.
“Based on guesswork there is a sense that in these areas that we are not able to access, out in the countryside for instance, places are falling into pockets of famine. But we’re not able to verify that and that’s part of the problem,” Thomas Thompson, the UN World Food Programme’s emergency coordinator, told CNN.
The fighting erupted during the autumn harvest season following the worst invasion of desert locusts in Ethiopia in decades. The conflict has plunged Tigray even further into severe food insecurity, and the deliberate blockade of food risks mass starvation, a recent report by the World Peace Foundation warned. The Ethiopian government itself estimates that at least 5.2 million people out of 5.7 million in the region are in need of emergency food assistance.

USAID distributes supplies in Hawzen, central Tigray, where residents hadn't received aid for two months.

Eritrean soldiers have been blocking and looting food relief in multiple parts of Tigray, including in Samre and Gijet, southwest of Mekele, according to a leaked document from the Emergency Coordination Centre of Tigray’s Abiy-appointed interim government obtained by CNN. In a PowerPoint presentation dated April 23, the center states that Eritrean soldiers have also started showing up at food distribution points in Tigray, looting supplies after “our beneficiaries became frightened and [ran] away.”
That report was corroborated by humanitarian workers in Tigray, who said they had “protection” issues around distributing aid in some areas as civilians were later robbed of the aid by Eritrean soldiers. Emily Dakin, who leads the USAID Disaster Assistance Response Team in Tigray, also told CNN that she had received reports of health centers being looted, which was “contributing to some of the dysfunctionality of the hospitals.”
Eritrea’s Minister of Information Yemane Meskel has rejected these claims.

Hannibal, 7, is treated at Axum Teaching and Referral Hospital for a gunshot wound to the leg, which he received from soldiers' gunfire as he was sitting on his mother's lap.

Eritrea’s power in the region feels absolute even in the Axum Teaching Hospital, where Eritrean soldiers are among the gun-toting troops roaming the corridors, dropping off wounded soldiers and threatening medical staff. It is a terrifying scene for patients, many of whom say they were injured either directly or indirectly by soldiers.
One doctor, who asked not to be named, told CNN that the siege had prompted a surge in patients. In addition to cases of malnutrition like Latebrahan, doctors and nurses are treating a grim array of trauma from shrapnel, bullets, stabbings and rapes. In a desperate attempt to keep pace with demand, medical workers have also begun donating blood.

A sign at Axum University Teaching and Referral Hospital reads:

But despite this, there wasn’t enough blood on hand to save one young woman, who had been attacked by soldiers who tried to rape her.
The doctor treating the woman told CNN that the hospital had seen a spike in sexual assault cases over recent weeks, but that the rise was just “the tip of the iceberg,” as many were too scared to seek medical services.
An alarming number of women are being gang-raped, drugged and held hostage in the conflict, in which sexual violence is being used as a weapon of war and its use linked to genocide. According to one agency’s estimate, almost one-third of all attacks on civilians involve sexual violence, the majority committed by men in uniform.
An autopsy photo of the young woman seen by CNN showed her internal organs spilling out from a wound in her lower abdomen.
“She came to our emergency department and she had a sign of life initially. [But] if you find blood for a patient, it’s only one or two units and one or two units could not save this woman. She bled [out] and she died,” the doctor said haltingly, overcome with emotion.
He took a deep breath, then added, “I see this woman in my dreams.”
This reporting would not have been possible without the support of dozens of Tigrayans, who shared their stories at great personal risk. CNN is not naming them to protect their safety. It also builds on a series of investigations into massacres and sexual violence in Tigray by CNN’s Bethlehem Feleke, Gianluca Mezzofiore and Katie Polglase. Read CNN’s full Tigray coverage here.
 

The second trend is the increased prominence of foreign troops and mercenaries in domestic and regional conflicts. …Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki is a central driver of this trend. He has built an entire economy centred on seeking economic rents from mercenaries and military bases.

Source: Al-Jazeera

The common political vision of the leaders of Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia threatens to throw the region into turmoil.

10 May 2021

Eritrea's President Isaias Afwerki, Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and Somalia's President Mohamed Abdullahi pose during the inauguration of the Tibebe Ghion Specialized Hospital in Bahir Dar, northern Ethiopia on November 10, 2018 [File: AFP/ Eduardo Soteras]Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi pose during the inauguration of the Tibebe Ghion Specialized Hospital in Bahir Dar, northern Ethiopia on November 10, 2018 [File: AFP/ Eduardo Soteras]

Three years ago, a wave of political change swept across the Horn of Africa. In Sudan and Ethiopia, popular protests led to a change in leadership and what many assumed were democratic transitions. Ethiopia and Eritrea ended their two-decades-long rivalry, for which Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. The peoples of the Horn of Africa were euphoric for what many thought would be a new chapter in the region’s history.

Today, contrary to expectations, mass atrocities, inter-state wars, and autocratic entrenchment have become the defining features of the region. Over the last six months, several international conflicts have (re)emerged, notably between Ethiopia and Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia’s Tigray region, and Somalia and Kenya.

Egypt and Sudan are also threatening Ethiopia over the latter’s plans to proceed with a second filling of the controversial Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile river. Within Ethiopia alone, two significant insurgencies have been launched in this period, while ethnically motivated mass atrocities continue to take place regularly. The Horn of Africa is caught in a spiral of violence where domestic and regional conflicts overlap and fuel each other.

The conflicts and rights violations in recent months are not isolated incidents but part of a broader pattern of regional disorder, in which non-compliance with fundamental international legal norms is a central feature.

Four destabilising trends

The first indicator of creeping anarchy in the Horn of Africa today is the recent proliferation of territorial disputes and overall disregard for state boundaries. Eritrea, for example, has begun occupying parts of Tigray in northern Ethiopia and is issuing Eritrean ID cards to residents. Ethiopia is making territorial claims on Sudan’s Fashaga region and in response, Sudanese officials are raising claims on parts of Benishangul Gumuz in Ethiopia.

Within Ethiopia, Abiy has supported the Amhara Regional State’s annexation of parts of Tigray Regional State. Sensing Ethiopia’s weakness, Djibouti recently announced its intention to exploit the Awash river in Ethiopia. At the same time, Ethiopian politicians are publicly making irredentist claims on Eritrean territory. Finally, Somalia and Kenya have exchanged threats over contested maritime space.

While there is nothing wrong with territorial demands made through legal means, what we see is a recent trend of states trying to take over territory by force in order to create a fait accompli. This has led to a contagion effect where one actor’s breach of the norm of territorial integrity encourages other actors to do the same.

The second trend is the increased prominence of foreign troops and mercenaries in domestic and regional conflicts. Abiy Ahmed has outsourced counterinsurgency to Eritrean soldiers in his war against Tigray as well as employed them in the border conflict with Sudan. Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi has also used Ethiopian troops against local opponents in Somalia. At the same time, Somali soldiers have allegedly fought in Ethiopia.

The main problems with these forces are their legal ambiguity, their tendency to commit extreme human rights abuses, and their unique capacity for fuelling inter-communal tensions. Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki is a central driver of this trend. He has built an entire economy centred on seeking economic rents from mercenaries and military bases.

The third problem is the growing disregard for international humanitarian law. Over the last six months alone, Ethiopian and Eritrean forces have engaged in systemic ethnically cleansing, rape, starvation, and massacres on an unprecedented scale. Eritrean troops have also destroyed refugee camps in Ethiopia hosting Eritrean refugees and forcibly returned thousands of them back to Eritrea. So far, this has not had any serious repercussions for the culprits, and when faced with criticism, Abiy and Afwerki have been dismissive.

Finally, today the Horn of Africa is also characterised by a sharp decline in multilateral diplomacy. The regional body Intergovernmental Agency for Development has been excluded from most of the conflicts and peace processes; it has notably been absent in the Ethiopia-Eritrea peace process and the war in Tigray. Instead, leaders have chosen to structure their cooperation and manage conflicts outside of institutional frameworks and through personal channels, which is a significant obstacle for preventive diplomacy.

The domestic politics fuelling regional instability

The destabilisation of the Horn of Africa is primarily a function of the domestic politics of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. Abiy, Afwerki, and Abdullahi forged the tripartite alliance in 2018 with the aim of moulding the regional order according to their domestic political ideals. The three leaders are opposed to federalism, the accommodation of ethnonational diversity, and institutionalised governance. Instead, they prefer a centralised state under the command of a strongman who rules by fiat.

Afwerki – the godfather of the alliance – has ruled Eritrea without a constitution or a single election for almost 30 years. The source of his autocratic longevity is a universal and indefinite military conscription policy that has contained most of the youth in military barracks and compelled hundreds of thousands to migrate. These conditions have made popular rebellion practically impossible.

In Ethiopia, Abiy was selected by his political party to transition the country to democracy in 2018. However, using COVID-19 as a pretext in June 2020, he postponed elections and imprisoned his opponents. His attempt to concentrate power and suppress Ethiopia’s various ethnonational groups has led to civil war and looming famine.

Abdullahi was supposed to prepare Somalia for its first direct elections in several decades. Instead, he has been trying to centralise power in the federal government, which has resulted in conflict with various regional governments, notably Jubbaland. His term expired in February, and following the example of his regional allies, he extended it for two more years. This has initiated a constitutional crisis and armed conflict, which eventually forced Somali lawmakers to cancel his term extension. He is the first president since the Somali state-building process began in 2004 to try to remain in office after his term expired.

The regional trends that are today destabilising the Horn of Africa emanate from these domestic conditions. The efforts to break federalist forces in Somalia and Ethiopia have led to a spill-over of conflicts across state borders and have fuelled regional rivalries. The members of the tripartite alliance also manage inter-state relations in the same way they govern their domestic politics – they conduct diplomacy through personal channels and resolve disputes through military means.

The alliance’s behaviour is particularly destructive because of its long-term consequences. For example, territorial conflicts, ethnic cleansing, and rape as a weapon of war sow the seeds for inter-generational grievances. In Ethiopia, Abiy’s policies have already revived secessionist sentiments in Tigray and Oromia. And the extent to which Ethiopia will continue to exist as one nation after the war is now questionable. In the last six months alone, these conflicts have displaced more than two million people in Tigray, and the European Union’s envoy to Ethiopia says this may be “the beginning of one more potentially big refugee crisis in the world”.

What is unfolding in the Horn of Africa is a significant threat to international security. Halting the ongoing descent into anarchy requires, first of all, concerted efforts to compel leaders to respect their constitutions.

In both Ethiopia and Somalia, Abiy and Abdullahi must be pressured to enter into a political dialogue with their contenders to reset their democratic reform processes. Secondly, the use of foreign mercenaries in domestic conflicts must be deterred. In particular, verification mechanisms must be established to ensure the withdrawal of Eritrean troops from conflicts across the region. And finally, perpetrators of serious violations of international humanitarian law must be held accountable in order to pave the way for a reconciliation process but also to deter others from engaging in such acts.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

ኤርትራውያን፡ ብዘይካ ቁንጣሮ ሰዓብቲ ጉጅለ ህግደፍ፡ ሃገርን ህዝብን ናይ ምድሓን ዕማም ማዕረ እዩ ዝብጸሖም። እቲ ድሌት ጥራይ ዘይኮነ፡ እቲ ናብዚ ዘይተርፍ ዓወት ንምብጻሕ ዝኽፈል ናይ ቃልሲ ዋጋ እውን ብኹሎም ዝኽፈል እምበር፡ ሓደ ከፋላይ እቲ ካልእ ተዓዛባይ ዝኾነሉ ኣይኮነን። ኤርትራውያን ነዚ ክበቕዑ፡ እቲ ሓደ ነቲ ካልእ  ረጊጽዎ እንዳ ሓለፈ ዘይኮነ፡ ከምቲ  “ተመሊስካ እትረድኦ ሓዲግካዮ ኣይትእቶ” ዝበሃል፡ እንዳተደጋገፉን እንዳተመላልኡን ዝካየድ መስርሕ እምበር፡ ብምንጽጻግ ዝሕለፍ ኣይኮነን። ብግብሪኸ ከምኡዶ ንመላላእን ንተሓላለን  ኣለናን ወይስ ኣይፋልናን ዝብል  ወትሩ ብጽሞና ክንሓስበሉ ዝግበና እዩ።

መንቀሊ ኮነ ሸቶ ቃልስና ሓደ እዩ። ንሱ ከኣ “ኣብ ኤርትራ ምልኪ ኣወጊድካ ሕገመንግስታዊ፡ ህዝባዊ ዲሞክራስያዊ  ስርዓት ምውሓስ”  እዩ። እቲ ዘራኽበና ክሳብ ክንድዚ ዓሚቕን ብሩህን እንዳሃለወ፡ ብዙሓት ሰልፍታት፡ ውድባት፡ ማሕበራት፡ ህዝባዊ ምልዕዓላትን ትካላት ሚድያን ክንከውን እንከለና ዘየገርም ኣይኮነን። ተረሓሒቕና ዘይንረሓሓቕ ኮይና ከነብቅዕ ብሕማቕ ዓይኒ ክንጠማመትን ብናይ ሓሳብ ደናጉላ ክንኮራረብን እንከለና ከኣ ኣዝዩ ዘስደምም እዩ። እቲ ቀንዲ ፍልልይና ኣብ ዙርያቲ ናብቲ ናይ ሓባርና ሸቶና ንምብጻሕ እንኽተሎ ኣተሓሳስባ እዩ እምበር፡ “ምምሕዳር ህግደፍ ክውገድ’ሞ ብህዝባዊ ዲሞክራሲ ክትካእ”  ዝብል መትከልስ ናይ ሓባርና እዩ። እቲ ምብዛሕ ናይ ውዳበታትናን ትካላትናን መሰልን ምርጫን ናይቶም ተዋሳእቱ ስለ ዝኾነ “ኣእዳው ጠዊኻ እተውሕዶ ወይ እተብዘሖ” ኣይኮነን። ነቲ ናይ ኣተሓሳስባ ብዙሕነት ኣኽቢርካን ኣመሓዲርካን፡ ኣብቲ እትሰማመዓሉ ዘራኽበካ ሰፊሕ መድረኽ ምግባሩ  ዘይስገር እዩ። ብመሰረቱ እውን ማእከላይ ነጥቢ ናይቲ ኣብ ቅድሜና ዘሎ ዕማምን ብደሆን እዩ።

ብሰንኪ ብሓባር ክንቃለስ ዘይምብቃዕና ዝኣትወና ሓደገኛ ንፋስ ንኣድማዒ ዓቕምና ዘዳኽም ጥራይ ኣይኮነን። እቲ ሓደገኛ  ናይ ሓባር  ጸላኢና ንክበታትነና እውን ዕድል ዝህብ እዩ። ስለዚ ተኸኣኢልካን ተጸዋኢርካን ዝኽየደሉ መንገዲ ክንረክብ ክንጽዕር እንከለና፡ እንተዘይበቒዕናዮ ኣብ ልዕሊ ካለኦት ዘይኮነ ኣብ ልዕሊ ነፍሲ ወከፍና ንውስን ከም ዘለና ክንርዳእ ይግበኣና። ካብዚ ንምድሓን፡ ነቲ “ተመሊስካ ንእትረድኦ፡ ሓዲግካዮ ኣይትእቶ” ዝብል ምስላ እንተላይ ነቲ ረቂቕ ምስጢራዊ ትርጉሙ ከነስተውዕለሉ ይግበኣና። ዝያዳ ኣዕሚቚና እንተሓሲብናሉ እምበኣር “ኣነ ብዘይበኣኻ፡ ንስኻ ብዘይበኣይ ኣይከንድምዕን ኢና እሞ ኣይንረሓሓቕ” ዝብል ዓሚቕ መልእኽቲ ዘለዎ እዩ።

እቲ ብዙሓት ውዳበታት ክንከው ዘብቀዓና፡ መበገሲናን መዓርፎናን ሓደ ክነሱ፡ ኣብቲ ጉዕዞ ነናትና መዋጸኦ ኢልና ንኣምነሉ ኣተሓሳስባ ምሓዝና እዩ። እዚ ናይ ኣተሓሳስባ ብዙሕነትዚ ምናልባት ብዘይድሌትና  ተባዚሑ ይኸውን። እንተኾነ “ሰብ ኣይውሓድ ምስ ድራሩ” ከም ዝበሃል፡ ነቲ ብዙሕነት  ኣሳኒና፡ ንኹልና ዘማእዝን ሓቛፊ ባይታ ኣማዕቢልና፡ ነቲ ምንጽጻግን ምርሕሓቕን ናብ ተስፋን ምቅርራብን ከነማዕብሎ ግደታና እዩ። ብመሰረቱ  እውን ነዚ ክንገብር ምኽኣልን ዘይምኽኣልን ኣብ ናይ ለውጢ ቃልሲ ብቕዓትና ዝምዘነሉ እዩ። ካብዚ ሓሊፉ ኣብ ልዕሊ’ቲ ኣብ ኩለ-መዳያት ብዙሕነት ዝጸውር ትዕግስትን ሓላፍነትን ዘየብሉ ጉጅለ ህግደፍ ብመሰረቱ ዝተፈለና ምዃና ጸብለልታ እነመዝግበሉ’ውን እዩ። ናብዚ ክንበጽሕ ከኣ “እንኽእሎ እዩ” ዝብል ኒሕን ሓቦን እምበር “ድሕሪ ሕጂ ምስ እገለ ሓቢርካ ምቅላስ ኣይከኣልን  እዩ” ብዘስምዕ ዝዓረበ ሕልናን ተስፋን ክኸውን ኣይገበኦን።

ንናይ ኣተሓሳስባ ፍልልይ ብዓይኒ ክዕረቕ ዘይክእል ጽልእን ምንጽጻግን ክንርደኦ ኣይግባእን። ብዓይኒ ጽልኢ ምርእኣይ ቅድሚ ሕጂ ብብዙሓት ተፈቲኑ ዘየዐወተ ምርጫ እዩ። ኣብነት ክኾነና፡ ኣብ ግዜ ቃልሲ ንናጽነት ኤርትራ፡ መግዛእታዊ ስርዓት ደርግ ህዝቢ ኢትዮጵያ ንሃገራት ኣዕራብ ይጸልአን’ዩ ብዝብል ዝንቡዕ ሕሳብ፡ ንሰውራ ኤርትራ “ናይ ኣዕራብ መሳርሒ እዩ” ኢሉ ብህዝቢ ከጽልኦ ፈቲኑ። ጉጅለ ህግደፍ “5ይ መስርዕ” ብዝብል ሕንጉጉ ሰኒዑን ምስ ህዝቢ ኣጻሊኡን፡ ንሓይልታት ተቓውሞ ኤርትራ ምስዚ ኣጐዝጊዙ ብህዝቢ ከጽልኦን ከብርሶን ብዙሕ ፈቲኑ። ድሕሪ ውግእ ኤርትራን ኢትዮጵያን ከኣ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ምስ ወያነ  ተጻሊኡ እዩ ብዝብል፡  ንሓይልታት ተቓውሞ ኤርትራ ምስ ወያነ ደሪቡ ካብ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ክንጽሎ ዘይፈንቀሎ እምኒ ኣይነበረን። 

ሎሚ ድሕሪ ውግእ ኣብ ትግራይ ምጅማሩ እሞ ኣብ ኣሰላልፋ ፖለቲካዊ ሓይልታት ኤርትራን ከባቢናን ጽልዋ ምስ ኣሕደረ ከኣ፡  እቲ ግጉይ ኣስማት እናለጠፍካ ምውቃዕን ምጽላምን ዝልማዱ ጉጅለ ኢሳያስ ኣፈወርቂ በቲ ዝለመዶ ይቕጽል ኣሎ። ካብኡ ሓሊፉ ኣብ ደንበ ተቓውሞና እውን እቲ ምውቕቓዕን ምጽልላምን፡ ካብ ናትካ ዝተፈልየ ርኢኢቶ ንዝወነነ ኣካል ጁንታዶ ብልጽግና ብዝብሉ ቃላት ተሰንዩ ይቀላቐል ኣሎ። ብልጽግና ወይ ጁንታ ከይኮንካኸ፡ ከም ኤርትራዊ ረብሓ ሃገርካን ህዝብኻን ኣቐዲምካዶ፤ ናትካ ርትዓዊ መርግጽ ምሓዝ  ዘይከኣል ኣይኮነን። መሰል እውን እዩ። እቶም ብግጉይ  ኣስማት እንዳኣጠመቑ  ኣብ ጸለመ ተዋፊሮም ዘለዉ ንረብሓ መን ከምኡ  ይገብሩ ከም ዘለዉ  እንድዒ። ስለዚ እቲ ኣስማት እንዳውጻእካ ምጽላም፡ ካብ “ቅድም ንነብስኻ ምርኣይ” ንምህዳም ዝመሃዝ መመሳመሲ እዩ። ውዒሉ ሓዲሩ ግና ከምቲ ሰውራና ናይ ኤርትራ እምበር ናይ ኣዕራብ ከምዘይኮነ ብግብሪ ዝተራእየ፡ እቲ ካለኦት ጸለምታት እውን ኩነታት እንዳኣነጸሮ ሓቀኛ መልክዑን መንነቱን ካብ ምሓዝ ዝዓግቶ ከም ዘየለ ምርዳእ የድሊ።

Saturday, 08 May 2021 19:37

Dimtsi Harnnet Sweden 08.05.2021

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