There is a pattern to Eritrean diplomacy

Sometimes months pass and little happens. President Isaias sits by his dam, contemplating and scheming. At others there is a blizzard of activity.

We seem to be in in one of the latter patterns.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy in his latest visit to Eritrea inspected the graduation-parade rehearsals at Sawa for the 33rd Round of the National Service conscripts.

Sawa is the center for military training for Eritrea’s National Service and is normally closed to outside visitors.

Abiy Ahmed Sawa 19 July 2020

It came at the end of a two-day visit that concluded with the usual bland and uninformative statement.

“In their extensive discussion, President Isaias Afwerki and Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed reviewed the progress achieved and obstacles encountered in the past two years in the implementation of the historic Declaration of Peace and Friendship agreement signed between the two countries in July 2018.

The two sides agreed to further bolster the prevailing, all-rounded, cooperation between the two countries. They also agreed to work together to enhance regional cooperation in the Horn of Africa firmly aware that this is pivotal for nurturing robust ties anchored on mutual complementarity.”

It has been remarked upon that unlike previous trips, this one was handled entirely by the Eritreans.

  • In the past Prime Minister Abiy announced publicly, via press releases and twitter, that his trips to Eritrea were taking place and allowed the Ethiopian media to accompany him.
  • No such announcement was made by the Prime Minister’s office prior to this trip.
  • All information about the visit  was released by Eritrean Minister of Information.
Both leaders had their wives with them. Isaias had his son Abraham with him, who now appears to accompanying his father everywhere.

No sooner than this trip was over than a high-level delegation arrived in Sudan. It was led by Eritrean Chief of Staff, General Filipos Weldeyohanes, and including Eritrea’s National Security Director, Abraha Kasa, and the Commander of the Eritrean Navy, Admiral Humed “Karikare.”

Gen Philipos (front left) in Sudan with delegation 19 July 2020

So what’s under way?

These visits come after President Isaias spent two days earlier this month in Cairo, meeting President al-Sisi.

Al-Monitor helpfully pointed out that it was President Isaias’s fifth visit to Egypt since Sisi came to power in 2014. Isaias had previously visited Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on May 2, and Khartoum, Sudan, on June 25.

Al-Monitor, which is based in Washington and generally well informed, went on to suggest that the main issue under discussion was Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam in the Nile, which is keeping Egyptians up at night worried that their water supplies will be interrupted.

Quoting an unnamed diplomat, Al-Monitor said:

“Cairo is open to all regional and international initiatives designed to resolve the dispute over the GERD. Egypt and Eritrea have common interests that are not limited to bilateral files. There is ongoing coordination in handling the regional dossiers in the Red Sea region on the one hand, and the relations with Ethiopia on the other.”

‘Speaking to Al-Monitor on the role Eritrea can play in the conflict between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the GERD, Hamdy Abdel Rahman Hassan, a professor of political sciences at Cairo University, said, “Under the rule of Afwerki, Eritrea [became] a key actor in the power equation in the Horn of Africa given its important geostrategic position. President Afwerki is able to act at the foreign level and exploit the [disputes] to his own interests.”

‘Abdel Rahman Hassan added, “Eritrea’s president already announced his position on the GERD in 2016. He believes that the dam exceeds the development needs of Ethiopia. There are multiple signs indicating that the Eritrean position is in favor of Egypt, particularly after the tripartite negotiations [on the dam] have come to a crossroad.”’

A threat to peace?

In another article, Al-Monitor looked back an earlier report they published.

‘“For Egypt, the matter of the Nile is a matter of life and death,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said in an exclusive interview with Al-Monitor in September 2019, adding, “I don’t think anybody would agree that Ethiopian development should come at the expense of the lives of Egyptians.”

Those are the stakes, as Egypt, sees it, if Ethiopia ignores Cairo’s appeals to hold off on filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) before an agreement is reached on how the Nile’s waters should be shared among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.

After the collapse of the latest round of talks, brokered by South Africa and mediated by the African Union, the diplomatic thread is running out, and while armed conflict seems a remote possibility, it can’t be dismissed, either.

After the collapse of the talks, Shoukry said, “Any serious harm caused by the Renaissance Dam to the water security of Egypt and Egyptians is a red line, and Egypt and its apparatuses cannot stand idly by without responding to the damage caused.”’

The suggestion that President Isaias might use his diplomatic skills to bring Egypt and Ethiopia together where President Trump, the UN Security Council and the African Union have failed may seem faintly absurd. But President Isaias is well placed as a friend of both governments, and in this world nothing should be ruled out.

A common enemy: Tigray

If there is one issue that unites Isaias and Abiy it is Tigray’s TPLF. about which they are both almost pathologically obsessive making little or no effort to hold any serious discussions or dialogue.

The TPLF, which is concerned over the future of federalism in Ethiopia in the face of the Prime Minister’s drive to centralise the Ethiopian state, is a thorn in Abiy’s side. Isaias has long regarded the Tigrayans as his predominant enemies.

Prime Minister Abiy postponed Ethiopian elections, saying that Covid-19 made it impossible to hold them in August 2020. The decision was rejected by some Ethiopians, including the Tigrayans, who described it as illegal. TPLF threatened to hold their own elections in the Tigray region in August and has now elected an election commissioner.

Screenshot 2020-07-21 at 08.09.47

The Ethiopian Prime Minister fears that the Tigrayans are moving towards a de-facto independent state. The Tigrayans have repeatedly acted to prevent Ethiopian military equipment including heavy artillery and weapons to be moved from the border with Eritrea.

Screenshot 2020-07-21 at 11.15.58

This was reported more than a year ago.

“Tigray region residents in northern Ethiopia have blocked military trucks withdrawing from the border with Eritrea. Angry youth in the region questioned the movement of troops saying they need clarity about regional security once the military leaves.

They blocked the military trucks from leaving Shire and Zalambessa areas where they had been stationed. It is the second time they have prevented the armoured military vehicles from leaving the border areas.

Ethiopia announced last month, it had started withdrawing its troops from disputed territories along the border with Eritrea as part of the peace deal signed in July between the two countries.”

The suggestion that President Isaias was looking for a final knock-out blow against the TPLF is not new. It was made by an Ethiopian analyst earlier this year.

As Naty Berhane Yifru put it: “Should such tit-for-tat between TPLF and Isaias continue, we may be in for another devastating cycle of conflict, or even possibly the disintegration of Ethiopia. Nobel Peace Prize or not, Abiy’s inability to correctly choose between protecting a region of his own country or cuddling a newfound foreign friend, known the world over for his cruelty against his own people, may cost him dearly.”

These are high stakes indeed. There is no proof that another conflict across the Mereb river is looming, but if there was to be a war between Eritrea and Tigray, any government in Addis Ababa would want to ensure that Sudan would remain neutral. It was the use of Sudan as a rear base that allowed the TPLF to conduct its highly effective war against the forces of the Ethiopian Dergue. May this explain President Isaias’s decision to send such a high-level military delegation to Khartoum?

All this comes as Prime Minister Abiy wrestles with forces that are resisting his attempts to present himself in the traditional Ethiopian role: as a strong-man, who centralises the state authority. Hence his arrest of at least 5,000 of his opponents.  Some are Oromo and some Amhara.

This is a struggle Abiy cannot afford to lose.

In the circumstances, is it fanciful to suggest Isaias and Abiy might be working together to rid themselves of a common enemy, the TPLF, with the support of both Sudan and Egypt? Was the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s visit to Sawa) a pre-cursor for such an offensive, with Sudan agreeing to stand aside and not allow the Tigrayans to use their territory as a rear-base? (Tigray has a border with Sudan).

The price for Abiy might include an agreement with Egypt and Sudan over the filling and operation of GERD, where there are other options still in play – the African Union is due to hold another meeting to discuss the impasse.

A lot of uncertainty, with a rapidly developing situation, but enough to concern anyone who believes in the necessity for continued peace in the region.

ርእሰ-ዓንቀጽ ሰዲህኤ

ኣብ ወርሒ ሓምለ 2018 ኣብ መንጎ ዲክታተር ኢሳያስ ኣፈወርቅን ቀዳማይ ሚኒስተር ኢትዮጵያ ኣብይ ኣሕመድን ኣብ ኣስመራ ወግዓዊ ርክብ ዝገበርሉ ኣጋጣሚ፡ ናይ ብዙሓት ቀልቢ ስሒቡ ከም ዝነበረ ዝዝከር እዩ። ዓበይቲ ማዕከናት ዜና ኣቃሊሐነኦ። ብዙሓት ፖለቲከኛታት ከኣ ክኢላዊ ግምታቶም ሂበምሉ። እቲ ዝወሃብ ዝነበረ ግምታት ከከም ኣፍልጦ ናይቶም ገመቲ ብዛዕባዚ ከባቢ ዝተፈላለየ ነይሩ። ምስዚ ኩሉ ግና ናብ ሓድሽ ምዕራፍ ክመርሕ’ዩ ዝብል ግምት ናይ ብዙሓት ነይሩ። ናይ ብዙሓት ንመንነት ኢሳያስን ዝበለየ ኣተሓሳስባኡን ብቐረባ እንፈልጥን ኣንጻሩ ክንቃለስ ዝጸናሕናን ኤርትራውያን ግምት ግና ከምናይቶም ነቲ ጉዳይ ካብ ርሑቕ ኣማዕድዮም ዝርእይዎ ኣይነበረን። ምስቲ ድሒሩ ብግብሪ ዝተራእየ ምዕባለ ከኣ ንዲክታተር ኢሳያስ እውን ካብ ትጽቢቱ ወጻኢ ከም ዝኾኖ ምግማት ጥራሕ ዘይኮነስ ክሳብ ብክልቲኡ መንግስታት “ዝምድና ኤርትራን ኢትዮጵያን ከምቲ ዝደለናዮ ክኸውን ኣይካኣለን” ክብሉ እውን ተኣሚኖም ኢዮም።

ኢሳያስ ዕድመ ስልጣኑ ኣብ ኤርትራ፡ ንጸገማት ህዝቢ ኣለልዩ ፈቲሑ ብዝድህሰስ ተግባር ዘይኮነ፡ ብናይ ደገደገ ሃተምተም’ዩኡ ከናውሖ ዝደሊ። እንተኾነ እዚ ግልቡጥ ኣተሓሳስባኡ ኣብ ብዙሕ ንውሽጢ ገዲፉ ንደገ ዝጥምት ተመኩሮኡ ፈቲንዎ ከዕውቶ ኣይከኣለን። ካብዚ ዘየዕውት ኣካይዳኡ ክመሃር  ባህሪኡ ስለ ዘይፈቐደሉ ከኣ ይደጋግሞ ኣሎ። ብግብሪ ከኣ ነቲ ኣብ ኤርትራ ዘሎ ኩምራ ጸገም ደፊኑ፡ ምስ ቀዳማይ ሚኒስተር ኣብይ ኣሕመድ ሸኾርተት ብምባል ከህደኦ ዝነበሮ ህርፋን ኣይሰርሐን። እዚ ከም ዘይሰርሐ ከኣ ካልእ ዝርዝር ገዲፍካ ኣብቲ ብ7 መስከረም 2018 ዶብ ሰንዓፈ-ዛላንበሳን ክኽፈት እንከሎ፡ እቲ ተዘሪዑ ዝጸንሐ ንኢሳያስ “ፎእ ጨርቅኻ፡ ፎእ ወርቅኻ” ኢሉ ናብ ትግራይ ኣትዩ ናይ ዝተመልሰ ብዝሒ ኤርትራዊ ምዝካር ጥራይ እኹል እዩ። ወዮ ክሃድእ ዝተሓስበ ህዝቢ ካብ ኢሳያስ ናይ ምህዳም ማዕበል መሊሱ ከም ዝገደደ ከኣ ሓላፍ መንገዲ ዘይኮነ፡ ዓለም-ለኻዊ ሰብኣዊ ትካላት እውን ኣብቲ እዋኑ መስኪረንኦ እየን። ኣዚሩ ንዝሓስብ ሓላፍነታዊ መራሒ ከኣ ካብ ህዝቢ ገዲፉካ ምኻድ ዝዓቢ ውድቀትን ምቅላዕን የለን።

ናይ ብዙሓት ደድሕሪቲ ርክብ እንታይ ከም ዝስዕብ ግምት፡ ኣብ ዙርያቲ ቀንዲ መረሓሓቒ  ኮይኑ ዝጸንሐ፡ መዓልቦ ዘይረኸበ ጉዳይ ዶብ ኤርትራን ኢትዮጵያን እዩ ነይሩ። ኢሳይስ ኣብቲ ናይ ኣይውግእ ኣይሰላም ዓመታት “ዝምድና ኤርትራን ኢትዮጵያን ናብ ንቡር ከይምለስ ዝዕንቅፍ ዘሎ እቲ ቀያድን ናይ መወዳእታን ብይን ዶብ ስለ ዘይተተግበረ’ዩ” ይብል ከም ዝነበረ ክከታተልዎ ስለ ዝጸንሑ፡ እቲ ስምምዕ ምስ መጸ  “ጉዳይ ዶብ ተወዲኡ’ሎ ማለትዩ” ዝብል ግምት ነይርዎም። ገለ ወገናት ግና ከሎ ጌና፡ ጭረሖ ኢሳያስ ኣብ ጉዳይ ኢትዮጵያ ኢድ ዘእቱን ዝኸፋፍልን ምንባሩ ኣስተብሂሎም፡ “ምናልባት እቲ ኣተሓሕዛ ጉዳይ ዶብ ኢሳያስ ብህልኽን ሕነ ምፍዳይን ተሳዒሩ መልክዑ ቀይርዎ ከይከውን” ዝብል ግምት ነይርዎም። ኢሳያስ  ካብ ቅድም’ውን ንጉዳይ ዶብ ብልቡ ዘይኣምነሉ ክነሱ፡ መፈከሪ ክገብሮ ጸኒሑ ከይከውን ዝብል ግምት ዝነበሮ’ውን ነይርዎም።

እቲ ግምታት ካብ ሓቂ ዝረሓቐ ኣይነበረን። ኢሳያስ ናብ ኣዲስ ኣበባ ከይዱ “ህዝብታት ኤርትራን ኢትዮጵያን ክልተ ህዝቢ እዮም ዝብሉ ነቲ ሓቅን ታሪኽን ዘይፈልጡ እዮም፡ ብስምዒት ዘይኮነ ብልበይ እየ ዶ/ር ኣብይ እዩ ዝመርሓና ዝብል ዘለኹ” ዝብል ዝርከቦ፡ ንብዙሓት ኣእዛኖም ምእማን ዘጸገሞም መደረታት ኣስሚዑ። ብዙሓት ኢትዮጵያውያን ከኣ ከም ሓደ ንኤርትራ ናብ ኢትዮጵያ ክመልሳ ዝመጸ ጀግና፡ ምስ’ቶም ፈደረሽን ኣፍሪሶም ባንዴራኣ ኣውሪዶም ንኤርትራ ምስ ኢትዮጵያ ዝሓወስዋ ኤርትራውያን  እንዳመሳሰሉ ኣዕዚዞም ንኢደምዎ። ከም ግነዖ ከኣ ኣግማል፡ ኣፍራስ፡ ዋልታ፡ ኲናት፡ ጋብን  ኪሎታት ቡንን ኣበርኪተሙሉ። ኣብ ቅድሚ ዓበይቲ ኢትዮጵያውያን ናይ ባህልን ሃይማኖትን መራሕቲ ከኣ ተደቢሩ ተመሪቑ። ኢትዮጵያውያን ፖለቲከኛታት ከኣ “ለካስ ኢትዮጵያ ኣፍደገ ባሕራ ስኢና ዝጸንሐት ብሰንክ’ቶም ንናጽነትን ልኡላውነትን ኤርትራ ኣፍልጦ ዝሃቡ ኢትዮጵያውያን እምበር ብኢሳያስ ኣይኮነትን ከይዳ ጸኒሓ” ክብሉ ተሰሚዖም። ብሰንኪዚ ናይ ኢሳያስ ተንበርካኺ ቃል ከኣ ናይ ብዙሓት ብሄራት ኢትዮጵያ ሕቶ መሰል ርእሰ-ውሳነ ከም ነውሪ ክውሰድ ጀሚሩ። እዚ ኩሉ ንኤርትራዊ ልኡላውነት ኣብ ሓደጋ ዘውድቕ ስምዒታት ክገማዳሕ እንከሎ፡ ብዘይካ ርዒምካዮ ምጽቃጥ ብመንግስቲ ኤርትራ ኮነ  ኢትዮጵያ መእረምታን መብርህን ክህብ ዝደፈረ ኣይነበረን ክሳብ ሎሚ’ውን የለን።

ሰዲህኤ ግና ብዘይካቲ ኣብ ብዙሕ ኣጋጣምታት ከቕርቦ ዝጸንሐ ስምዕታታት ብ12 ጥቅምቲ 2019 ኣብ ዘውጸኦ ናይ ፈጻሚ ሽማግለኡ መግለጺ “ጉጅለ ህግዲፍ ዝኽተሎ ዘሎ  ክብርን ልዑላውነትን ኤርትራ ኣብ ሓደጋ ዘውድቕን ንህዝቢ ኤርትራ ዘዋርድን ዘንዕቕን ኣካይዳ ዳህሲሱ ዘለዎ ተቓውሞን ቁጠዐን መዚኑ። ኣብ ርእሲዚ፡ ምስ ኩሎም ኤርትራዊ ሰልፍታትን ውድባትን ብሓባር ኮይንካ ኣዕናዊ ኣካይዳ ናይቲ ጉጅለ፡ ዝምከተሉ ኣገባብ ርእዩ።” ብዝብል ዘፈሮ ምጥቃ ይከኣል

ኢሳያስ በዚ ብዘይካ ንኤርትራዊ ልኡላውነት ኣብ ሓደጋ ምውዳቕ፡ ካልእ ምስጢሩ ዘይፍለጥ ስምምዕ ኣቢሉ ክዓብጦ ዝፈተኖ ኤርትራዊ ዘቤታዊ ጉዳይ ከም ዘይተዓወተሉ ተራእዩ እዩ። ብኣንጻሩ ዘይተጸበዮ ሳዕቤን ከም ዘምጸኣሉ ምስ ገመተ፡ ነቲ ብወገን ሰንዓፈ-ዛላንበሳ፡ እንዳገርግስ-ራማን ኦሞሓጀር-ሑመራን ዝነበረ ኣፍደገታት ረጊጥዎ። እቲ ብዝተሓተ ኣውንታ ዝረአ ዝነበረ፡ ናይ ተፈላልዮም ዝጸንሑ ኣዝማድ ምርኻብን ካብን ናብን ኤርትራን ትግራይን ክንቀሳቐስ ጀሚሩ ዝነበረ መሰረታዊ ነገራትን ከኣ ተቛረጸ። እዚ ብኢሳያስ ዝተወስደ በይነኣዊ ምዕጻው ናይቲ ዶባት፡ እቲ ርክብ ክጅመር እንከሎ’ውን ብዘይካ ናይ ሓጺር ግዜ፡ እሞ ዘይተዓወተ ተልእኮ፡ ኣርሑቑ ዝጥምትን ናይ ህዝብታት ቀጻሊ ረብሓ ኣብ ግምት ዘየእተወን ምንባሩ ዘረጋገጸ ነይሩ። ኢሳያስን ድ/ር ኣብይን ከም ክልተ መራሕቲ ካብ ዝተፈላለዩ ናይቲ ድራማ ናይ ድሕሪ መጋረጃ ደረስትን ስትራተጅካውያን ተጠቀምትን ኣዋርቕን መዳልያታትን ተቐቢለምሉ። እዚ ናይ ኣደባባይ ኮይኑ ናይ ውሻጠ ሕርጓቶ ከም ዝነበሮ ከኣ ካብቲ ክምስምሶም ምርዳእ ይከኣል። ብፍላይ ንኣቶ ኢሳያስ  እቲ ካብ ቀደሙ እውን ኣስናን ዘይነበሮ ማዕቀብ ተላዒልሉ። ዶ/ር ኣብይ ከኣ እቲ ደሓር ብዙሕ ዘዛረበ ናይ ሰላም ኖበል ስልማት ተቐቢልሉ።

በዚ ክልተ ዓመቱ ኣሕሊፉ ዘሎ ሕጂኳ ዳርጋ ካብ ምምልላስ ሓሊፉ፡ ዝረኤ ውጽኢትስ ትረፍ፡ መዛረቢ ኣብዘይኮነሉ ደረጃ በጺሑ ዘሎ ዝመስል ዝምድና፡ እቲ ደላይ ሰላም ክልቲኡ ህዝብታት  ኣይተጠቕመን። እቲ በዚ ስምምዕ ኣቢልካ ክሃድእ ዝተደልየ ፖለቲካዊ ቅልውላዋት ኣብ ክልቲኡ ወገን እንዳ ሓደረ ናብ ዝላዓለ ጥርዚ ኣሉታ  ይዓርግ ኣሎ። እቲ ብዙሓት ወገናት፡ ባይቶ ሰብኣዊ መሰል ሕቡራት ሃገራት ከይተረፈ፡ እቲ ኣብ ኢትዮጵያ ተጀሚሩ ዝነበረ ሎሚ ግና ኣቕጣጫኡ ኣጥፊኡ ዘሎ ለውጢ  ናብ ኤርትራ ጽልዋ ከሕድርዩ ዝብል ዝነበረ ግምት፡ ግምት ጥራይ ኮይኑ እዩ ተሪፉ። ብኣንጻሩ እቲ መበቆል ናይቲ ኣብ ኤርትራ ዘሎ ወጽዓ ዝኾነ ዲክታቶርያዊ ፖሊሲታት፡ ብውሱን ደረጃ ናብ ኢትዮጵያ ዝዘሩቕ ዘሎ እዩ ዝመስል። እዚ ኩሉ ተደሚሩ ነዓና ዘገንዝበና ከኣ፡ ኢሳያስ ናቱ መንገዲ ጥልመት ካብ መረጸ፡ ጉዳይ ልኡላውነት ሃገርናን መጻኢ ዕድል ህዝብናን ብኣና በቶም ንለውጢ ንቃለስ ዘለናን ህዝብናን ዝውሰን ምዃኑ እዩ።

  • 19 يوليو/ تموز 2020
سد النهضةمصدر الصورةGETTY IMAGES

تظهر صور الأقمار الاصطناعية التي التقطت بين 27 يونيو/حزيران و12 يوليو/تموز 2020 زيادة مطردة في كمية المياه التي يحتجزها السد الكبير الجديد، الذي شيد على النيل الأزرق في إثيوبيا.

وقد أثار ذلك غضب مصر والسودان، وهما دولتا المصب النهائي لسد النهضة الإثيوبي الكبير، حيث لم يتم الاتفاق بعد على الجدول الزمني لملئه في المفاوضات التي وصلت إلى طريق مسدود.

وقد تراجعت وسائل الإعلام الحكومية في إثيوبيا لتنفي لاحقا تقارير أشارت إلى أنه يتم ملء السد عمدا.

بيد أن كل ذلك يُعطي انطباعا خاطئا بأن ملء السد سيكون أشبه بملء حوض استحمام، وأن إثيوبيا يمكنها تشغيل وإيقاف الصنبور حسب رغبتها.

هل أن عملية الملء لا يمكن إيقافها؟

كلا، سيملأ الخزان خلف السد بشكل طبيعي خلال موسم الأمطار في إثيوبيا، والذي بدأ في يونيو/حزيران ويستمر حتى سبتمبر/أيلول.

وقال الدكتور كيفين ويلر، الذي يتابع المشروع الذي تبلغ كلفته 4 مليارات دولار منذ عام 2012، لبي بي سي إنه عند الأخذ بالاعتبار المرحلة التي وصلت إليها عملية بناء السد فإنه "لا يوجد شيء يمكن أن يوقف ملء الخزان إلى أدنى نقطة في السد".

ومنذ بداية العمل في عام 2011 لبناء السد على نهر النيل الأزرق استمرت المياه في التدفق عبر موقع البناء الضخم.

وقد عمل البناؤون على بناء الهياكل الضخمة على جانبي النهر دون أي مشكلة.

وعندما وصل البناء إلى الوسط، تم خلال موسم الجفاف تحويل مجرى النهر عبر قنوات أو أنابيب، للسماح ببناء هذا القسم.

وقد اكتمل الجزء الأسفل من القسم الأوسط. ويتدفق النهر حاليا من خلال قنوات جانبية تقع قرب أساس الجدار.

محتوى تفاعليتغير مناسيب نهر النيل في شمال غرب أثيوبيا

الـ 12 من يوليو

صورة فضائية لنهر النيل في شمال غربي أثيوبيا في 12 يوليو

الـ 26 من يونيو

 صورة فضائية لنهر النيل في شمال غربي أثيوبيا في 26 يونيو

ويقول الدكتور ويلر إنه مع بدء الشعور بأثر موسم الأمطار في موقع السد، فإن كمية المياه التي يمكن أن تمر عبر هذه القنوات ستكون قريبا أقل من كمية المياه التي تدخل المنطقة، مما يعني أنها ستوفر احتياطي مياه تصبه في البحيرة القابعة خلف السد.

ويضيف قائلا إنه يمكن للسلطات الإثيوبية إغلاق بوابات بعض القنوات لزيادة كمية المياه المحتجزة، ولكن ذلك قد لا يكون ضروريا.

ما هي المرحلة التالية؟

صورة لسد النهضة الاثيوبي في نهاية موسم الأمطار عام 2019مصدر الصورةREUTERSImage captionصورة لسد النهضة الاثيوبي في نهاية موسم الأمطار عام 2019

في السنة الأولى، سيخزن السد 4.9 مليار متر مكعب من المياه لتصل إلى ارتفاع يوازي أدنى نقطة على جدار السد، مما يسمح لإثيوبيا باختبار أول مجموعة من التوربينات التي تولد الطاقة الكهربائية.

وفي المتوسط، يبلغ إجمالي التدفق السنوي للنيل الأزرق 49 مليار متر مكعب من المياه.

وفي موسم الجفاف سوف تنحسر البحيرة قليلا مما يسمح بإكمال بناء جدار السد، وفي السنة الثانية سيتم حفظ نحو 13.5 مليار متر مكعب أخرى.

وبحلول ذلك الوقت يجب أن يصل مستوى المياه إلى المجموعة الثانية من التوربينات، مما يعني أنه يمكن إدارة تدفق المياه بشكل يمكن التحكم فيه أكثر.

وتقول إثيوبيا إن الأمر سيستغرق ما بين خمس إلى سبع سنوات لملء السد إلى أقصى سعة لموسم الفيضانات حيث تبلغ قدرته الاستيعابية 74 مليار متر مكعب.

سد النهضة

وعند هذه النقطة يمكن أن تغطي البحيرة التي سيتم إنشاؤها نحو 250 كيلومترا في المنطقة الواقعة أعلى النهر.

وفي الفترة بين موسم الفيضان والموسم الذي يليه سيتم تخفيض ما يحتجزه الخزان إلى 49.3 مليار متر مكعب من المياه.

لماذا تعترض مصر على ملء خزان السد؟

تشعر مصر والسودان بالقلق غزاء تدفق نهر النيل في سنوات الجفافمصدر الصورةREUTERSImage captionتشعر مصر والسودان بالقلق غزاء تدفق نهر النيل في سنوات الجفاف

تشعر مصر، التي تعتمد بشكل شبه كامل على النيل في احتياجاتها المائية، بالقلق وتخشى أن لا تضمن الحصول (على كمية المياة التي اعتادت الحصول عليها) في معظم السنوات التي سيتم خلالها ملء بحيرة السد.

وتظل إثيوبيا متحفظة إزاء التقيد برقم معين لكمية المياه التي يجب مرورها بعد انتهاء مرحلة ملء الخزان وتشغيل السد بالكامل، والذي سيصبح أكبر محطة للطاقة الكهرومائية في إفريقيا.

وفي السنوات التي يكون فيها معدل الأمطار عاديا أو فوق المتوسط لا يتوقع أن تكون هناك مشكلة، و لكن مصر قلقة بشأن ما قد يحدث خلال فترات الجفاف الطويلة التي يمكن أن تستمر لعدة سنوات.
سد النهضة بين تهديد شريان حياة مصر وأمل إثيوبيا في التنمية


Sunday, 19 July 2020 19:24

Why Nothing Is Simple Around a Narcissist

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Why Nothing Is Simple Around a Narcissist

When you spend time with narcissists, things rarely seem simple. Everything’s difficult to coordinate and arrange. And nothing seems to go smoothly.

In group settings, narcissists like to dominate proceedings. Making it difficult to reach a group compromise. And there’s often drama and conflict. In short, narcissists bring chaos whenever they’re around.

Here’s some of the reasons why nothing seems simple around narcissists…

They Don’t Go with the Flow

Narcissists don’t go with the flow. They lack empathy. So they don’t take into consideration the general consensus of people who are around them.

Most people feel a general vibe for what everyone wants, and makes compromises based on that. This leads to harmony in group settings. But narcissists don’t do this. They can’t. So they focus on what they want. Unless they’re trying to impress someone else.

This leads to difficulty making group decisions. And resentment from the narcissist if they don’t get their way. Or resentment from others who see the narcissist as getting their way too often.

Push Away Their Responsibilities

Narcissists HATE responsibility. They consider routine chores beneath them. Also responsibility is a chance for them to make mistakes. Narcissists like to think of themselves as perfect. So they don’t want to put themselves in positions where they might slip up. Because that would challenge their delusions of perfection.

Instead of doing what’s needed, they find ways to push their responsibilities onto others. That way they’re free to do what they please, and pass blame if things go wrong.

A narcissist might ignore their responsibilities, even when this causes problems. Then hope you step in to save the day. Once you’ve done this a few times, this becomes your role. And if you try to discuss why it’s their responsibility, you’re often faced with these issues…

Avoid Discussing Problems

When problems arise, most adults discuss them, and come to a resolution. But when discussing them with narcissists, you find yourself getting nowhere.

They may change the subject. Blame you. Or antagonize you into a messy argument. They do everything they can to avoid the real issue. So nothing gets resolved. Even when you’re being calm and rational.

Narcissists harbor delusions of being perfect. So they fight hard to avoid conversations that might reveal they’re not. They don’t want to be accountable for their actions. So they avoid the real issues. It’s frustrating when they keep avoiding discussions, when you just seek a simple solution.

They Have Hidden Agendas

Narcissists usually have hidden agendas that nobody else is aware of. And they’re often more focussed on their hidden agendas than the matters at hand. This leads them to make some seemingly strange choices. 

Their hidden agendas could be absolutely anything. It might be to discredit someone they’re jealous of. To control the group, to feed their delusions of superiority. Or to persuade everyone to go somewhere they know an ex will be. Just to annoy them.

Narcissists often don’t make sense to those around them. But they fight hard to get their way. Which leads to all sorts of complications.

Don’t Want Peace and Harmony

Most people want things to go smoothly. And they want peace and harmony. But narcissists get bored of this.

Narcissists sometimes deliberately cause trouble to create chaos. They might wind someone up over something they’re sensitive about. Or stir trouble between other people, and sit back and watch the drama unfold. 

Narcissists love drama. And making things messy and toxic distracts from their own messy and toxic behaviors.

Equate Complication with Intelligence

Narcissists like to deliberately complicate matters. Because they think complication means intelligence. So they might use deliberately complicated language, when simple explanations will do.

Narcissists aren’t always interested in communicating a message. They want to impress. So they sometimes go around the houses when explaining things. Just to make it seem more complicated than it really is. And them more intelligent.

Some narcissists like to complicate things for manipulation purposes. They know that if people are confused, they’re more likely to agree, allowing them to control situations.

They Like Changing Plans Last Minute

Many narcissists like to change plans last minute. This is to establish control over the situation.

What would have been well organized plan can descend into chaos. As their last minute changes create uncertainty, which throws plans into turmoil. 

Whilst the dust is settling, and people are trying to work out what’s going on, the narcissist takes control. And changes things to suit their own needs and agendas.

Often Late

Narcissists are often late. Again this is a control tactic. Turning up late is a subtle statement, saying you don’t matter. Everyone must wait for them to make their grand entrance. 

Narcissists don’t care how their lateness affects others. In their mind they’re important, so everybody should wait until they decide to arrive.

Some narcissists arrive late and in a bad mood. This is to push everyone on the back foot, so they tip-toe around the narcissist and don’t question their lateness.

Final Thoughts

Narcissists lack empathy. So they struggle thinking of others needs. And they are exploitative. So they play various tricks to get what they can from situations.

You’re innocently co-ordinating your efforts with them and everybody else, trying to reach harmony. Whilst they’re plotting how to gain as much as they can for themselves.

Narcissists aren’t team players. They’re chaotic people who are out for themselves. And they bring their chaos into other people’s lives. 

Nothing is simple around narcissists. Because they try to bend the world to their will. Which requires a lot of scheming, manipulation, and conflict. Which is never straightforward and simple.



Saturday, 18 July 2020 23:04

Radio Dimtsi Harnnet Sweden 18.07.2020

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ኤርትራውያን ቀደም ኮነ ሎሚ ንኤርትራን ህዝባን ኩሉ ጸጽብቑ ከም እንምነየሎም ፍሉጥ እዩ። ትምኒት ጥራይ ዘይኮነ ነቲ ጽቡቕ ንምግሃድ ብኤርትራውያን ዝተኸፍለ ዋጋን ህይወትን  ምዝርዛሩ ዘጸግም እዩ። እቲ ሓባራዊ ድሌት ኤርትራውያን እዚ ኮይኑ፡ “ናብኡ ብየናይ መንገዲ ንበጽሕ” ኣብ ዝብል ግና ቀደም ኮነ ሎሚ ፍልልይና  ዝነበረን ዘሎን እዩ። እዚ ፍልልይ እዚ ካብቲ ዘለና ኩለ-መዳያዊ ብዙሕነታዊ ጸጋና ዝነቅል ስለ ዝኾነ፡ እምብዛ ዘሰንብድን ዝጽላእን ኣይመኾነን። ነቲ ብዙሕነትና ምምሕዳሩ ስኢና መረሓሓቅን መተሃላላኽን ክኸውን እንከሎ ግና ዘየሻቕል ኣይነበረን ኣይኮነን። እዚ ከኣ ኣብ ተመኩሮና ርኢናዮ ኢና።

ኣብቲ ቀዳማይ ናይ 30 ዓመታት ምዕራፍ ቃልስና፡ ቀዳማይ ዕማምና ንኤርትራ ካብ መግዛእቲ ምንጋፍ እዩ ነይሩ። ከም ርዱእ ካብ መግዛእቲ ምንጋፍ ክበሃል እንከሎ፡ ድሕሪ መግዛእቲ ኣብ ኤርትራ ዝሓሸ ኩለመዳያዊ ህይወትን ራህዋን ምምጻእዩ ነይሩ። እንተኾነ ከምቲ “እንተ ክንብርኩት ዘይክንብርኩ ኣብ ማይ ንብጻሕ” ዝበሃል፡ ቅድሚ ድሕሪ ናጽነት እንታይን ከመይን ክንመሓደር ኢና “ብኸመይ ኢና ናጽነት ኤርትራ እነውሕስ” ዝብል ቅድሚት ክስራዕ ቅኑዕ ኣሰራርዓ ጉዳያት ነይሩ። ከምኡ ከኣ ኮይኑ። እንተኾነ እቲ ንድሕሪ ናጽነት ዝምልከት እውን “ ደሓን ሽዑ ነርክበሉ” ብዝብል ምሉእ ብምሉእ ክዝንጋዕ ዘይኮነ ጐኒንጐን’ቲ ቀዳማይ ዕማም ምውሓስ ናጽነት ተተይ ክብልን ባይታ ከንጸፈሉን ዝነበሮ እዩ። ዲክታቶር ኢሳይሳ ኣፈወርቅን ዝኣመሰሉ ውሱናት ኣካላት ግና ነቲ ክቡር ዋጋ ዝኸፈለ ሓርበኛ ተጋዳልይን ህዝቢ ኤርትራን ኣዳህሊሎም ካብ ሽዑ ጀሚሮም ናጽነት ጨውዮም ነዚ ሎሚ ድሕሪ ናጽነት ንርእዮ ዘለና ክቱር ጭቆና ናይ ምስፍሕፋሕ ሕቡእ ሕልሚ ከም ዝነበሮም፡ ናይ ድሕሪ ናጽነት ኩነታትና መስካሪ እዩ።

ብሰንኪቲ ኣብ ግዜ ቃልሲ ኣንጻር መግዛእቲ ነቲ “እንተ ክንብርኩት ዘይክብርኩት ኣብ ማይ ንብጻሕ” ዝብል ኣበሃህላ ብግጉይ ኣገባብ ምሓዙ ሳዕቤኑ እንታይ ከም ዝኾነ ርኢናዮ ኣለና። ብሰንክዚ ናይ ድሕሪ ናጽነት ቃልስና ምእንቲ ሓርነት ኣብ ክንዲ ናይ ራህዋን ህድኣትን ዝኸውን እንደጋና ናይ ቃልሲ መዋእል ኮይኑ ኣሎ። ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ከኣ ክሳብ ሎሚ ፍረ ቃልሱ ኣብ ዝሓፍሰሉ ዘይኮነ፡ ወትሩ ኣብ ቃልሲ ተጸሚዱ ክቕጽል ተገዲዱ እነሆ። ሎሚ ነቲ ኣብ ግዜ ቃልሲ ኣንጻር መግዛእቲ ዝነበረ ኣርሒቕካ ናይ ዘይምርኣይ ሕጽረት ኮነ ተንኮል  ክንመልሶ ኣይንኽእልን ኢና። ጽባሕ ከይድገም ክንመሃረሉ ግና ግድን እዩ። ነዚ እንተዘይበቒዕና ግና ወትሩ ደገምቲ ግጉይ መንገዲ ኮይና ክንነብር ኢና።

ናይ ሎሚ ቃልስና ቀዳምነት እምበኣር፡ ምውጋድ ወጻዒ ጉጅለ ህግዲፍ ክነሱ፡ ነዚ እንዳረሳዕና ክሳብ ሕጂ ኣብ ዘይተበጽሐ ናይ ድሕሪ ውድቀት ህግዲፍ እዋን  “ብኸመይ ንመሓደር” ኣብ ዝብል እምብዛ ጉልበትና ክንውድእ እሞ ዕድመ ምልኪ ኢሳያስ ክነውሕ ዕድል ክንህብ ኣይግበኣናን። ንጉዳያት ደኣ በብደረጃኡ  ንሓዞ እምበር፡  ምሉእ ብምሉእ በቲ “እንተ ክንብርኩት ዘይክብርኩት ኣብ ማይ ንብጻሕ” ተሸፊና ብዛዕባ ጽባሕ ኣይንሕሰብ ማለት ኣይኮነን። ካብቲ ድሕሪ ናጽነት ኣጋጢሙና ዘሎ ብረቂቕ ዝተሃንደሰ ዕንቅፋት ተማሂርና፡ ድሕሪ ውድቀት ጉጅለ ህግዲፍ ከይድገም ክንዳለወሉ ዘለና እዩ። ኣብዚ ሓደ ክንዝገዖ ዘይብልና፡ በቲ ሓደ ወገገለ ኤርትራውያን ብሰንኪ ምረት ኣብ ድሕሪ ናጽነት  ኤርትራ ኣንጸርጺሮም “ናጽነት ኤርትራዶ እንታይ ዓቢሱልና እዩ?” ክብሉን ኣብ ልኡላውነት ኤርትራ ክጠዓሱን ኣብ ንሰምዓሉ ኢና ዘለና። በቲ ካልእ ወገን ከኣ ዲክታቶር ኢሳያስ ይኸዶ ብዘሎ ናይ ጥልመት መንገዲ ሻዲኖም፡ ናጽነት ኤርትራ ንድሕሪት ከምዘይምለስ ተኣሚኖም ኣእዛኖም ኣውዲቖም ዝነበሩ ወገናት፡ ትንሳኤ መግዛእቲ ኣብ ኤርትራ ክምለስ ኣብ ዘመዓድውሉ ኩነታት ኢና ዘለና። መንግስቲ ኢትዮጵያ እውን ንስምዒት ኢሳያስ መዝሚዙን ንክብሪ ህዝብና ደንዲኑን እንተላይ ብስም ኤርትራ ክምድርን ስምምዓት ክኸትመን ኣብ እንዕዘበሉ እዋን ኢና ዘለና። ስለዚ ኣብዚ ቅድም ንምውጋድ ህግዲፍ ድሕሪኡ ከኣ ምህናጽ ሓርነት ንቃለሰሉ ዘለና፡ ጉዳይ ልኡላውነት ሃገርና እውን ወትሩ ካብ ኣጀንዳና ከነውጸኦ ኣይግበኣናን። ዝምድናታትና ምስ ዝተፈላለዩ ወገናትን መጻኢ መደባትናን ክንሰርዕ እንከለና ንጉዳይ ልኡላውነትና ብጥቃቐ ከነቕልበሉ ናይ ግድን’ዩ። ካብዚ ሓሊፉ ልኡላውነታ ኣብ ሓደጋ ኣብ ዝወደቐሉ፡ ሓርነት ይኹን ዲሞክራሲ ክንተክል ግብራዊ ኣይኮነን።

ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ኣብ ዝሓለፉ ዓመታት ብምዕራፋት ኣብ ዝተኸፍለ ነዊሕ ጉዕዞ ቃልሲ እዩ ጸኒሑ። ጌና እውን ኣብ ቃልሲ ኣሎ። ቃልሲ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ነዊሕ ግዜ ዝወሰደ ጥራይ ዘይኮነ፡ ኣዝዩ መሪር ዝርዝር ዘለዎ እዩ። ንኣተሓሕዛ ክጥዕመና ግና ቃልስና ምእንቲ ናጽነትን ቃልስና ድሕሪ ናጽነት ምእንቲ ሰላም፡ ልምዓትን ዲሞክራስን ኢልና ኢና ንገልጾ። እዚ ምዕራፋት ቃልሲ፡ ብመንጽርቲ ዝካየደሉ ግዜ፡ ብናይ ሓይልታት ኣሰላልፋ፡ ዘመዝግቦ ሽቶን ከባብያዊ ምዕባለታትን ዝተፈላለየ እዩ። እንተኾነ እዚ ምዕራፋት ቃልሲ ሓያል ምትእስሳር ዘለዎ እምበር፡ በበይኑ ፈላሊኻ ዝተሓዝ ኣይኮነን። ከምኡ ስለ ዝኾነ ኢና ከኣ ኣብዚ ምእንቲ ምውሓስ ሕገመንግስታዊት፡ ዲሞክራስያዊትን ብዙሕነታዊትን ኤርትራ ንቃለሰሉ ዘለና እዋን  ንቀጻልነት ልኡላውነትና እውን ከንቕልበሉ ይግበኣና እንብል።

ካብዚ ሓሊፉ፡ እዚ ንርከበሉ ዘለና ኩነታት ቃልስና ኣብ ጉዳይ ሃገርና ጥራይ ዝድረት፡ ብኣና ጥራይ ተወሲኑ ዝተርፍ ዘይኮነ፡ ከባብያዊ ምስፍሕፋሕን ምጽልላውን ኣብ ዝረኣየሉ ኢና ንርከብ ዘለና። ከምኡ ስለ ዝኾነ ከኣ ቃልስና በዚ ኣብ ከባቢና ኣብ ኢትዮጵያ፡ የመን ኮነ ሊቢያ ዘሎ ምዕባለታት ዘይጽለወሉ ምኽንያት የለን። ድሮ ኢሳያስ ከምቲ ኣመሉ ካብ ኤርትራዊ ዛዕባ ንምህዳም፡ ምስ በዓል ስዑድ ዓረብያን ኢመራትን ኮይኑ ኣብ ጉዳይ የመን ክሳብ ወተሃደራዊ መደበራት ብምሃብ ኢዱ ከም ዝኣተወ እንፈልጦ እዩ። ካብዚ ሓሊፉ ኤርትራ ሰራዊት ናይዘን ዝተጠቐሳ ሃገራት ናብ ሊቢያ መመላለሲት ድንድል ኮይና ትሰርሕ ኣላ። ብዓብይኡ ከኣ ኢሳያስ ብዘሕፍር ኩነታትን ካብ ቀዳማይ ጠለብ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ኣዝዩ ብዝረሓቐን ብእዉጅን ኣብ ጉዳይ ኢትዮጵያ ኢዱ ከም ዘእቱ ተጠሊዑ ተዛሪቡ እዩ። ስለዚ እዚ ኩሉ ጠብሎቕሎቕ ንሃገርና ዋጋ ከም ዘኽፍላን ንቃልስና ምእንቲ ሰላም፡ ልምዓትን ዲሞክራስን ንድሕሪትኳ እንተዘይመለሶ ክሓላልኾ ከም ዝኽእል ግና ክንግንዘቦምን ክንዳለወሉን ዝግበና እዩ። ነቲ “ክንብርኩት ዘይክብርኩት ኣብ ማይ ንብጻሕ” ዝብል ኣበሃህላ ከኣ ኣርሒቕካ ንምምዕዳው ብዘይዕንቅጽ ክንርደኦ ይገበኣና።

JULY 16, 2020  NEWS

The UN Human Rights Council has called for the re-appointment of the Special Rapporteur, as well as welcoming her report and conclusions.

This was part of what she had to say: “Two years on from the peace deal between Eritrea and Ethiopia, the dividends of peace have yet to materialize for the Eritrean people. While Eritrea is engaging more actively in the international and regional scenes, the Eritrean authorities have yet to implement much-needed human rights reforms and open civic space in the country. The changes in regional dynamics have failed to translate into concrete and sustainable progress in human rights in Eritrea.”

Source: United Nations

United Nations A/HRC/44/L.8
General Assembly Distr.: Limited

13 July 2020

Original: English

Human Rights Council

Forty-fourth session

30 June–17 July 2020

Agenda item 2

Annual report of the United Nations High Commissioner
for Human Rights and reports of the Office of the
High Commissioner and the Secretary-General

                   Australia, Austria, Belgium,* Bulgaria, Canada,* Croatia,* Cyprus,* Czechia, Denmark, Estonia,* Finland,* France,* Germany, Greece,* Iceland,* Ireland,* Italy, Latvia,* Liechtenstein,* Lithuania,* Luxembourg,* Malta,* Monaco,* Montenegro,* Netherlands, North Macedonia,* Norway,* Poland, Romania,* Slovakia, Slovenia,* Spain, Sweden* and Switzerland*: draft resolution

44/…   Situation of human rights in Eritrea

The Human Rights Council,

Guided by the Charter of the United Nations, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the International Covenants on Human Rights and other relevant international human rights instruments,

Recalling General Assembly resolution 60/251 of 15 March 2006, Human Rights Council resolutions 5/1 and 5/2, both of 18 June 2007, resolution 91 and decisions 250/2002, 275/2003 and 428/12 of the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights and all previous Council resolutions on the situation of human rights in Eritrea,

Recalling also the important regional developments in recent years and the potential they bear for the development of human rights in Eritrea,

Welcoming the commitment of the Government of Eritrea to the Sustainable Development Goals, and its participation in the third cycle of the universal periodic review on 28 January 2019[1] and in the human rights dialogue with the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women on 14 February 2020,[2]

Welcoming also the report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Eritrea[3] and her conclusions,

  1. Requests the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights to present an oral update to the Human Rights Council at its forty-sixth session on progress made in the cooperation between Eritrea and the Office of the High Commissioner, and its impact on the situation of human rights in Eritrea;
  2. Decides to extend the mandate of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Eritrea for a further period of one year, and to continue to assess and report on the situation of human rights in follow-up to the report of the Special Rapporteur, and requests the Special Rapporteur to present an oral update to the Human Rights Council at its forty-sixth session during an interactive dialogue, and to present during an interactive dialogue a report on the implementation of the mandate to the Council at its forty-seventh session and to the General Assembly at its seventy-fifth session;
  3. Calls upon the Government of Eritrea to cooperate fully with the Special Rapporteur, including by granting access to the country and committing to making progress on the proposed benchmarks;[4]
  4. Requests the Secretary-General to provide the Special Rapporteur with all the information and resources necessary to fulfil the mandate;
  5. Decides to remain seized of the matter.


                        *   State not a member of the Human Rights Council.

                        [1]   A/HRC/41/14.

                        [2]   See CEDAW/C/ERI/CO/6.

                        [3]   A/HRC/44/23.

                        [4]   A/HRC/41/53, paras. 75–81.

To their shame, a number of African nations abstained or voted against the UN Special Rapporteur being re-appointed.

Of course Eritrea was among them, but they include Sudan, Somalia, Libya and Cameroon, which voted no. Do the Sudanese and Somalis not care about the plight of their brothers and sisters in Eritrea?

Angola, Burkina Faso, the DR Congo, Mauritania, Togo, Senegal and Nigeria abstained.

Screenshot 2020-07-16 at 16.31.46

Friday, 17 July 2020 05:26

Radio dimtsi Harnnet Kassel 16.07.2020

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ርእሰ-ዓንቀጽ ሰዲህኤ

ኣብ ዝሐለፈ ወርሒ ሰነ 2020 “ሓባራዊ መግለጺ ፖለቲካዊ ሓይልታት ኤርትራ ብዝብል ናይ ህዝብና ሃንቀውታ ኣብ ግምት ዘእተወ ናይ ብስራት ኣዋጅ ምውጽኡ ዝዝከር እዩ። ከምቲ ዝርዝር ትሕዝቶ ናይቲ መግለጺ ሃገርና ኤርትራ መዳርግቲ ብዘይብሉ መስዋእ ናጽነታን ልዑላውነታን ዘውሓሰት ሃገር እነተዀነት፣ እቲ ብኢደ ወነኑ ኣብ ስልጣን ተወጢሑ ዓሰርተታት ዓመታት ብዘይቅዋምን ሕግን ንህዝብና እናድመየን እናበታተነን ክገዝእ ዝጸንሐን ዘሎን ስርዓት፡ ሃገርና ናብ ጐደና ጥፍኣት ይመርሓ ምህላዉ ኩሉ ዝፈልጦ ሓቂ እዩ።” ኢሉ ዝጀመሮ፡ ኣብዚ ጭቆና ህግዲፍን ኮሮናቫይረስን ኣንጻሮም ሓድነት ዝፈጠርሉ እዋን፡ ሃገርናን ህዝብናን ኣብ ከመይ ዝኣመሰለ ኣጨናቒ ደረጃ ከም ዘለዉ ምርድኡ ዘጸገም ኣይኮነን። እዚ መግለጺ ደንጉዩ ዝወጸኳ እንተኾነ፡ ሕጂ’ውን “ክንብል በለ’ምበር ኣይተኻዕወን” እዩ እሞ፡  እምብዛ ግዜ ዝሓለፎ ናይ ተስፋ ደወል ኣይኮነን።

እዚ ስምምዕዚ ናብቶም ክመጸሎምን ከይመጾምን ብሓጐስን ስግኣትን ክጽበይዎ ዝጸንሑ ህዝቢ ኤርትራን ጉጅለ ህግዲፍን ዘመሓላልፎ መልእኽቲ ኣለዎ። እቲ ክመጸሉ ክጽበዮ ዝጸንሐ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ በዚ ተበጺሑ ዘሎ ናይ ኤርትራዊ ፖለቲካዊ ሓይልታት ስምምዕ ተስፋኡ ከም ዝጥጥዕን ናይ ቃልሲ ንያቱ ክብ ከም ዝብልን ዘጠራጥር ኣይኮነን። ብኣንጻሩ እቲ ሓድነትና ከይስስን ከም ቁርን ኣስሓይታን ክፈርሖ ዝጸንሐ ጉጅለ ህግዲፍን መዳምቕቱን  ከም ዝስንብዱን እተተኻኢልዎም  ክኾልፍዎ፡ እንተዘይከኣሉ ከኣ ከደናጉይዎ ብምሉእ ዓቕሞም ካብ ምሕላን ንድሕሪት ከምዘይብሉ፡ ካብ ዝሓለፈ ተመኩሮና እንግምቶን እንጽበዮን እዩ። ኣብዚ ጥምጥምዚ እቲ ኣብ ቅድሜና ዘሎ መዋጸኦ  ዝርህርህ ልቢ ንዘየብሉ ጉጅለ ህግዲፍ  ልቢ ክሰኩዕ ምጽባዩ ዘይኮነ፡ ናይ ሓባር ዓቕሚ ደሊብካ ምስዓሩ ጥራይ እዩ። ሓድነት ፖለቲካዊ ሓይልታት ኤርትራ ኣብ ድልዱል ባይታ ክረግጽ ምብቅዑ ከኣ ካብቲ ቀንዲ ነቲ  ካብ ምፍልላይና ዝዕንገል ንሓድነትና ከም ቁርን ኣስሓይታን ዝፈርሖ  ርጉም ሓይሊ እንስዕረሉ መሳርሒና እዩ።

እዚ ፖለቲካዊ ውድባትና በጺሐምዎ ዘለዉ  ናይ ሓቢርካ ኣንጻር ህግዲፍ ምቅላስ ስምምዕ፡ ነቲ ዝተርፈና ሓባራዊ ዓቕምኻ ናይ ምትርናዕ ዕማም መሰረት ዘንጽፍ ምዃኑ ፍሉጥ እዩ። ብኣንጻሩ እቲ ኣብቲ እንደልዮ ንምብጻሕ ዝሓተና መጻኢ ተወፋይነትን ጻዕርን ካብቲ ክሳብ ሕጂ ዝኸፈልናዮ ዝበዝሐን ዝኸበደን እንተዘይኮይኑ ዝቐለለን ዝወሓደን ከምዘይኮነ ዘንጊዕና ከነራጥጥ ኣይግበኣናን። ናይቲ ቅድሚዚ ሎሚ በጺሕናዮ ዘለና ስምምዕ ዝነበረ ብሓባር ናይ ምስራሕ ተመኩሮታትና ናይ “ስርሕ-ፍንጥሕ” ኣካይዳ ምንባሩ ተኣሚንና ክንመሃረሉ እምበር ንዓኡ ናፊቕና ንድሕሪት ከነማዕዱ ኣይግበኣናን። ቀንዲ ጠንቂ ናይቲ ክንመሃረሉ ዝግበኣና ዝሓለፍናዮ መንገዲ ስንኩፍነት ኣብ ዘይድልዱል፥ ዘይሓላፍነታውን  ኩነታት ኤርትራ ብኹሉ መዳያቱ ብግቡእ ዘይዳህሰሰን ባይታ ይድኮን ስለ ዝነበረ እዩ። ሎሚ ክንሓስቦም እንከለና ዘጣዕሱናን ክንመሃረሎም ዝግበኣናን ተዘክሮታት ኣለዉና። ናይቲ ናብዚ ሎሚ በጺሕናዮ ዘለና ስምምዕ ንምብጻሕ ዝተኸደ መስርሕ ንውሕ ዝበለ ግዜን ዓሚቕ ትዕግስትን ምሕታቱን ኣብ ቀጻልነት ናይዚ ስምምዕ እምነትን ተስፋን ከነሕድር ዘተባብዓና እዩ።

እቲ ናይ ቅድም ምፍልላይና ኮነ እዚ ሎሚ ኣብ ዘሰማምዕ ምብጻሕና ካብ ውልቃዊ ኮነ እኩብ ኣተሓሳስባና እዩ ዝነቅል። እዚ ሎሚ በጺሕናዮ ዘለና ስምምዕ ተተግቢሩ ናብ ክብ ዝበለ ሓቢርካ ናይ ምስራሕ ደረጃ ከደይበና ተስፋ እነንብረሉ፡ ኣብ ኣተሓሳስባና ካብ ተመኩሮና ተማሂርና ካብቲ ዝጸንሐ ዝሓሸ ለውጢ ኣምጺእና ኣለና ካብ ዝብል እዩ ዝነቅል። ኣብ ኣተሓሳስባና ለውጢ እንተዘየጥሪና ግና እዚ ናይ ሎሚ ስምምዕና እውን ከምቲ ናይ ቅድሚ ሕጂ ናይ ምኹላፉ ዕድል ክፉት እዩ። ናይ ኣተሓሳስባ ለውጢ ኣጥሪና ኣለና ክንብል እንከላና፡ ናይ ሸቶታት ቀዳምነትና ኣነጺርና፡ ፍልልያትናን ስምምዓትናን ተገንዚብናን በብደረጀኦም ኣመሓዲርናን። ካብዚ ሓሊፍና ኪኖ ውልቃዊ፡ ውድባዊ ወይ ሰልፋዊ ህልውና ኣማዕዲና፡ ህልውናን ቀጻልነትን ህዝብን ሃገርን ከም ዝቕድም ኣስተውዒልና ኣለና ማለት እምበር፡ ካልእ ተኣምር ሰሪሕና ማለት ኣይኮነን።

መስርሕ ሓድነት ብሓደ ኩበዖ ዝብጻሕ ዘይኮነ፡ ብመስርሕን ደረጃታትን ዝምዕብል እዩ። ብመንጽር’ዚ  በጺሕናዮ ዘለና ተወሃሂድካ ኣንጻር ህግዲፍ ናይ ምቅላስ ቅሩብነት፡ መበገሲና ኮይኑ፡ ናብ ቀጻሊ ዝሰጠመ ሓድነት ሓይልታት ለውጢ ዘመዓዱ እዩ። እዚ ተበጺሑ ዘሎ ደረጃ ስምምዕ፡ ከምቲ ኣብ ወረቐት ሰፊሩ ዘሎ ኣብ ባይታ እንተ ኣድሚዕናሉ፡ ናብቲ ዝለዓለ ብርኪ ሓድነት ክንበጽሕ ውሕስነት ዝህብ እዩ። ኣብቲ ኣብ ኢድና ዘሎ ከየድማዕና፡ ናብቲ ብመስርሕ ክንበጽሖ ዝግበኣና ምምጥጣር ግና ትምኒት ጥራይ ኮይኑ እዩ ዝተርፍ።

እቲ ስምምዕ ከምቲ ተኸቲምዎ ዘሎ ክትግበር ዕማምን ሓላፍነትን ናይተን ዝኸተማ ግንባራት፡ ሰልፍታትን ውድባትን ኣዝዩ ዝለዓለ ምዃኑ ርዱእ እዩ። ዘተኣማምን ምሉእነት ንክህልዎ ግና፡ ከምቲ ብብዙሓት ወገናት ተስፋ ተነቢርሉ ዘሎ፡ ኣበርክቶን ምትብባዕን ኤርትራዊ ማሕበራት፡ ህዝባዊ ምንቅስቓሳትን ዝተፈላለዩ ውዱባት ኣካላትን ኣገዳሲ ምዃኑ ክሰሓት የብሉን። ዝተፈላለዩ ወገናት ነዚ ብኤርትራዊ ፖለቲካዊ ሓይልታት ተበጺሑ ዘሎ ስምምዕ ዘሕይል፡ ደገፍን መተባብዕን ብምቕራብ እምበር ንድሕሪት ብዝመልስ ቅኒት ከይርእይዎ ሓላፍነት ኣለዎም። እዘን ስምምዕ ከቲመን ዘለዋ ኣካላት እውን “ኩሉቲ ንህልዊ ኩነታት ኤርትራ ዝምልከት ዳህሲስና ንህልዊ ኩነታት ኤርትራ ዝምጥን ውዱእ ስምምዕ በጺሕና ኣለና” ኢለን፡ ኣፍደገ ኣብ ክንዲ ምዕጻው ሃናጺ ሓሳባት ናይ ምቕባል ድልዉነትን ትዕግስትን ክውንና ናይ ግድን እዩ።

ሰልፊ ዲሞክራሲ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ (ሰዲህኤ)፡ ከምቲ ኣብ ናይ 2017 ናይ ሓቢርካ ምስራሕ መጸዋዕታ እማመኡ “1፡ ምዕቃብ ልኡላዊ ግዝኣት ኤርትራ፡ 2፡ ምውዳቕ ዲክታቶርያዊ ስርዓት ህግደፍን ምልጋስ መሓውራት ጭቆናኡን፡ 3፡ ድሕሪ ውድቐት ስርዓት ህግደፍ ኣብዝሓ ሰልፋዊ ስርዓት ዝሰረቱ ህዝባዊ ዲሞክራስያዊ ስርዓት ምቛም፡ 4፡ ግዝኣተ ሕግን ዲሞክራስያዊ መሰላትን መላእ ሓርነታትን ህዝቢ ምቕባል።” ዝብሉ መሰማምዒ ይኹኑ እዮም ዝበሎም ሓሳባት ሒዙ ዝነቐሎ፡ ነዚ ሎሚ ተበጺሑ ዘሎ ስምምዕ ኣብ ምትግባሩን ናብ ዝበረኸ ደረጃ ምድያቡን ብዘለዎ ዓቕሚ ክጽዕት ቅሩብ ኣሎ። ብሓባር ምስራሕ ብድሌትን ጻዕርን ናይ ዝተወሰነ ኣካል ጥራይ ዝረጋገጽ ዘይኮነ፡ ናይ ኩሎም’ቶም ሰብ ጉዳይ ኣበርክቶ ዝሓትት እዩ። ሰዲህኤ ነዚ ብምርዳእ ናብቲ እንደልዮ ንምብጻሕ ናይ ኩሎም ፈረምቲ ኣካላትን ኣብ ለውጢ ዝግደሱ ኤርትራውያንን ቅሩብነት ከም ዝህሉ እምነቱ ልዑል  እዩ።

ኩለ-መዳያዊ ህይወትና እኩብ ድምር ናይ ትማልን ሎሚን ምዕባለታት እኩብ ድምር ውጽኢት ኮይኑ፡ ዝያዳ ናብ ጽባሕ ዝጥምት እዩ። ህይወትናን ከባቢናን ብቐጻሊ ማዕባሊ ስለ ዝኾነ፡ ትማሊ ንሓደ ጉዳይ ዝመዘናሉ መለክዒ ሎሚ ዝተፈልየ ክኸውን ናይ ግድን እዩ። ናይ ሎሚ ሚዛንና ንጽባሕ እውን ከምኡ ዝምዕብል እምበር፡ ኣብቲ ዘቐመጥናዮ ኮፍ ኢሉ ዝጽበየና ኣይኮነን። ንትማሊ፡ ንሎሚን ንጽባሕን ብዝተፈላለዩ ናይ ግዜ ንውሓት ንገልጾም እምበር፡ ኣብ ቀዳም ኮይና ንዓርብን ሰንበትን ጥራይ ንገልጸሉ ኣይኮነን። ንኣብነት ኣብ ቃልስና ነቲ ምእንቲ ናጽነት መሪር ቃልሲ ዘካየድናሉ መድረኽ ትማሊ እንተ ኢልናዮ፡ ነዚ ናይ ድሕሪ ናጽነት ናይ ሓርነት ቃልሲ ነካይደሉ ዘለና መዋእል ከኣ ሎሚ ንብሎ። እቲ ድሕሪ ምውጋድ ጉጅለ ህግዲፍን ጸረ-ህዝቢ ኣተሓሳስባኡን ዝመጽእ ናይ ራህዋን ህንጸትን ግዜ ከኣ ጽባሕ ክንብሎ ንኽእል። ኣብዚ ነካይዶ ዘለና ናይ ለውጢ ቃልሲ እውን ትማሊ፡ ሎሚን ጽባሕን ኢልና ንገልጾም ንኡሳን ምዕራፋት ክንቀርጽ ንኽእል። ኮታ ንተኸታተልቲ ዕለታት፡ ሰሙናትን ወርሓትን ጥራይ ንገልጸሉ ዘይኮነ፡ ንሓደ ነዊሕ መስርሕ ብብርክታት መዲብና እንርእየሉ ናይ ግዜ መዕቀኒ እዩ።

ትማሊ ዝሓልፍናዮ ተመኩሮ ናይ ንሎሚ መምህርና እዩ። ናይ ሎሚ ተግባርና እውን ናይ ጽባሕ መምሃሪና ክኸውን እዩ። ጽባሕ ካብ ናይ ሎሚ፡ ሎሚ ከኣ ካብ ትማሊ ዝመሃረሉ መስርሕ ኣዝዩ ሰፊሕን ብዙሕ መልክዓት ዘለዎን እዩ። ክጠቓለል እንከሎ ድማ ካብቲ ዝሓለፍካዮ ነቲ ኣውንታ ምውሳድን ዝያዳ ብምሕያልን ምምዕባልን እቲ ሓደ ገጹ እዩ። እቲ ካልእ ገጹ ከኣ  ነቲ ግጉይ ጐድኒ ተመኩሮና ምእራሙን ነቲ ክእረም ዘይክእል ድማ ምውጋዱን ብዝብል’ዩ ዝግለጽ። እዚ ሃናጺ መስርሕ ካብ ተመኩሮ ብምምህሃር ነቲ ቀጻሊ ምዕባለ ብኣውንታ ክመርሕዎ ናይ ዝደልዩ እዩ እምበር፡ ኣብ ክንዲ ኣብ ሎሚ ኮይኖም ካብቲ ናይ ትማሊ ዝመሃሩ፡ ኮነ ኢሎም ነቲ ናይ ትማሊ እከይ ተግባሮም መሊሶም ሎሚ ዝደግምዎን ጽባሕ’ውን ከም ዝቕጽልዎ ዝእምቱ  ሰብ እከይ ግብሪ ወገናት የለዉን ማለት ኣይኮነን። እቲ ኮነ ኢሉ ኣብ ልዕሊ ህዝብናን ሃገርናን፡ ወጽዓ ኣብ ርእሲ ወጽዓ፡ ቅትለት ኣብ ርእሲ ቅትለት፡ ግህሰት ኣብ ርእሲ ግህሰት እንዳደረበ ዝቕጽል ዘሎ ጉጅለ ህግደፍ ኣብ ሎሚ ኮይንካ ካብ ናይ ትማሊ ናይ ዘይምምሃር ኣብነት እዩ።

ከምቲ ኣብ ሎሚ ኮይና ትማሊ ሓሊፉ ጽባሕ’ውን ከም ዝመጽእ እንእመን፡ ሎሚ እንኸዶ መንገዲ እንተላይ ብመንጽር ጽባሕ ክምዕብል ዝኽእል ጽልዋኡ ከነጽነዖ ይግበኣና። ሎሚ ዘይረኣናዮ ጽባሕ ሃንደበት መጺኡ ብዝወጠናዮ ከይንቕጽል ዝዕንቅጽ ሓድሽ ተረኽቦ ክኸውን ከም ዝኽእልኳ ርዱእ እንተኾነ፡ ብዝከኣለና መጠን ከምቲ ብዛዕባ ሎሚ እንጭነቖን እንጥንቀቖን ኣብ ሎሚ ኮይና ጽባሕ ብግቡእ ንምርኣይ እውን ክንጭነቕ ናይ ግድን እዩ። ኣብ ኣዝዩ ቁንጹብ ብናይ ሎሚ ጥራይ ዝድረት ናይ “ካብ ኢድ ናብ ኣፍ” ኣተሓሳስባ ዝተሻበብና እንተኮይና ግና ናይ ጉዕዞና ኣጀንዳታት ወትሩ ኣብ ሓድሽ ጥራይ ዝጽመድ፡ ኣካይዳና ከኣ ሰንሰለታዊ ዋሕዝን ናይ ተመኩሮ ምምግጋብን ዝጐደሎ እዩ ዝኸውን። ኣብዚ ክንጥንቀቐሉ ዝግበኣና ካልእ ኣገዳሲ ናይ ትማሊ ተመኩሮና፡ ናይ ሎሚ ተግባርናን ናይ ጽባሕ መጻኢ መደባትናን ውሁዳት እምበር ሓደ ነቲ ካልእ ዝዕንቅፍ ምድብላቕ ከይፍጠር ክንጥንቀቕ ይግበኣና።

ኣብ ተመኩሮና ከም ኤርትራዊ ናይ ተቓውሞ ሓይሊ፡ ኣብቲ ንጉጅለ ህግዲፍን ኣተሓሳስባኡን ስዒርና  ዝሓሸ ህይወት ህዝብናን ሃገርናን ዘረጋግጽ ለውጢ ንምውሓስ ከነካይዶ ዝጸናሕና፡ ነካይዶ ዘለናን ጽባሕ እውን ክሳብ ዓወት እንቅጽሎን ቃልሲ ዘጋጥሙና ብደሆታት ብዙሓት እዮም። ሓደ ካብቲ ብደሆታት ከኣ ነቲ ዘለና ሓባራዊ ለውጢ ናይ ምምጻእ እምነትናን ትጽቢትናን ዝምጥን ውዱብ ናይ ሓባር ሓድነታዊ ጉዕዞ ከነውሕስ ዘይምኽኣልና ምዃኑ ኩልና እንዛረበሉን እንሻቐለሉን ዘለና እዩ። እቲ ሓባራዊ ናይ ለውጢ ድሌት ኣብ ኢድና እዩ ዘሎ። እቲ መፍትሒ’ውን ካባና ክነሱ፡ ብሰንኪ ናእሽቱን ዘይመሰረታውያንን ፍልልያት ነቲ ፍሩያት ዘቀራርባና ኣብ ባይታ ከነዕኩኾ ዘይምብቃዕና ከኣ ጸገም ካብ ምዃን ሓሊፉ ዘይፍታሕ ሕንቅልቅሊተይ ኮይኑና ጸኒሑ። ናይዚ ሕመረት ከኣ ካብ ናይ ትማሊ ተመኩሮና ክንመሃር ዘይምኽኣልና ዘመልክት እዩ።

ሎሚ ግና ካብ ተመኩሮና ናይ ምምሃር  ምልክት ነርኢ ኣለና። ካብ ምልክት ሑሊፉ በሪኹ ክረአ ከኣ ቀጻልን ዝተጸንዐን ቃልሲ ይሓተና። ኣብዚ መስርሕዚ ካብ ተመኩሮኻ ምምሃር፡ ሓያልን ድኹምን ጐድንታትና ክንርኢ ኢና። ቀንዲ ጐሊሑ ዝረኣየና፡ ቅድም ኣብ ሎሚ ኮይና ብዛዕባ ጽባሕ ዝነበረና ናይ ምምዕዳው ዓቕሚ ውሱንን ኣብ ባዕላውነት ዝተሰረተን ምንባሩ እዩ። ዝያዳ ክስቆረና ዝግብኦ ከኣ ኣብ ሎሚ ኮይና ካብቲ ናይ ትማሊ ተመኩሮና ክንመሃር፡ ዓቕምና ክንመዝንን መጻኢ ሳዕቤኑ ከነማዕዱን ክንድቲ ዝድለ ዘይምብቃዕና እዩ። እዚ ማለት ካብቲ ትማሊ ዘየዕወተና መንገዲ ንገሊኡስ ክንደገሞ ምጽናሓና እዩ። ኣብ ምምዛን ዓቕምና እቲ ኣብ ቅድሜና ዘሎ ለውጢ ኣረጋጊጽካ ህዝብን ሃገርን ናይ ምድሓን ብደሆ ንምብዳህ፡ ብሓደ ወይ ውሱናት ውድባት፡ ሰልፍታትን ግንባራትን ዘይዕመም ክነሱ፡ ነቲ ሓቢርካ ምቅላስ ክንድቲ ዝግበኣና ግምትን ክብደትን ክንህቦ ኣይጸናሕናን። ኣብ ምጥርናፍ ሓይልታት ለውጢ ምግዳስ ማለት ብዛዕባ ሓድነት ሓቢርካ ምጭራሕ፡ ምእዋጅን ምጭናቕን ዘይኮነ፡ ብግብሪ ኩሉ ዓቕምኻ ኣወሃሂድካ ወይ ኣላፊንካ፡ ክኽፈል ዝግበኦ ዋጋ ምኽፋልን ንሕድገትን ምክእኣልን ናተይ ኢልካ ምርዓምን እዩ።

ትማሊ በበይንኻ ብምዃንካ ዘይምድማዕካ እንተመዚንካ፡ ሎሚ እቲ መፍትሒ ብሓባር ኮይንካ ምቅላስ ምዃኑ ብሩህ እዩ። ነቲ ናይ ትማሊ መዚንካ ዘዋህለልካዮ ሃናጺ ሓቂ ሎሚ ዘይትጥቀመሉ እንተኮይንካ ሚዛን ምክያድ እቶት የብሉን። ነቲ ናይ ትማሊ ተመኩሮ ተማሂርካሉ ማለት፡ ነቲ ዘየቃድወካ ዝነበረ፡ ናቱ እሱር ደኣ ኣይትኸውንን እምበር፡ ደፊንካዮ ትሓልፍ ማለት ኣይኮነን። ኣጐልቢብካ እንተ ሰጊርካዮ፡  ናብቲ “ሓሊፈዮን ተማሂረሉን” ዝበልካዮ ናይ ምምላስ ሓደጋኡ ክፉት እዩ። ነቲ ትማሊ ብሓደ ከይትኸውን ዝዓንቀፈካ ምድህሳሱ ማለት፡ መሊስካ ነቲ ዝሓወየ ዝመስል ግና ክድገስ ዝኽል ስንብራት ንከይምለስ ምፍዋሱ ማለት እዩ።

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