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Wednesday, 06 January 2021 19:11

ንቀራረብ’ሞ ንደማመጽ፡ እንተዘይ ተደማሚጽና ግና…..!

Written by ኣሮን ናኦድ

ኣብዚ እዋንዚ ኤርትራውያን ኢሳያስን ውሑዳት መዳኽርቱን ገዲፍካ፡ ባህግናን ክንበጽሖ እንሕልኖ ሸቶን ሓደ እዩ። እንተኾነ ሸቶና ሓደ ክነሱ ናብኡ ንምብጻሕ እንመርጾ ኣሰላልፋ፡ ፖሊሲን ሜላን ይፈላለ ኣሎ። እቲ ኣብ ሓደ ሸቶ ንክንበጽሕ ዝተፈላለየ ኣገባብን ኣሰላልፋን ምሓዝና ነጽብራቕ ናይ ኩለ-መዳያዊ ብዙሕነትናን እምነ-ኩርናዕ ንምዕቃብ ናይ ኣተሓሳስባ ብዙሕነትን ስለ ዝኾነ፡ ጸጋ እምበር መርገም ኣይመኾነን። መርገም ዝኸውን እቲ ብዙሕነትና ኣብ ክንዲ ዘመልክዓልና ዘኽፈኣልናን ናብ ዘየድሊ ዋጢጥ ዝወስደናን ክኸውን እንከሎ እዩ።

ኤርትራዊ ውድብ ይኹን ሰልፊ፡ ወይ እውን ካልእ ንለውጢ ዝተሰለፈ ህዝባዊ ዓቕሚ፡ በበይንና ክንወፍር እንከለና ሓይልናን ኣድማዕነትናን ከም ዝደክም ርዱእ እዩ። እዚ ምጉዳልዚ ከኣ ናብቲ እንደልዮ ከይንበጽሕ ቀንዲ ዓንቃጺ እዩ። ብኣንጻሩ ሽቶና ሓደ፡ ንሱ ከኣ ወጽዓ ኣወጊድካ ራህዋ ምስፋን ስለ ዝኾነ፡ ናብኡ ዘብጸሓና ዓቕሚ ኣብ ናይ ሓባር መድረኽ ክንድልብ ክንበቅዕ ናይ ግድን እዩ። እዚ ከኣ ብናይ ሓደ ውድብ ባህግን ጽቡቕ ድሌትን ጥራይ ዝረጋገጽ ዘይኮነ፡ ብእኩብ ድምር ናይ ኩልና ዓቕምን ንሕባራዊ ስራሕ ቅሩብነትን ዝረጋገጽ እዩ። ከምቲ “ብልቢ እንተሓዚንካ ንብዓት ኣይኣብን” ዝበሃል፡ እንተደኣ ነቲ ከነዕውቶ ንቃለሰሉ ዘለና ሸቶ ብልቢ “ንህዝብና ናብ ራህዋ ዘብጽሕ እዩ” ኢልና ኣሚናሉ፡ እቲ ዘዕውት መንገዲ ካብ ኢድና ወጻኢ ኣይኮነን። ንሱ ከኣ ኣንጻር ናይ ሓባር ጸላኢ ሓቢርካ ብምቅላስ ዝረጋገጽ እዩ። ኣይኮነንዶ ናትና፡ ናይ ካልእ ንሕና ኣብ ዘይንዓሞ ዝሕግዘና ዓቕሚ ኣብ ንጽበየሉን ንጽወዓሉን ዘለና እዋን፡ ናትና ብሓባር ተሰሊፍካ ናይ ምስላፍ ዕዮ ገዛ እንተዘይተግቢርና ግና፡ ዘሕትተና እዩ።

ኣብ መሰረታዊ መዓርፎ ናይ ቃልስና ካብ ተሰማማዕና፡ በቲ ናብኡ ንምብጻሕ ንመርጾ መንገድታት ተረሓሒቕና ዓቕምናን ግዜናን ከነባኽን ኣይግበኣናን። ከም ኤርትራውያን ጉጅለ ህግደፍ ንምውጋድ ዝተሰለፍና ሓይልታት ለውጢ፡ ካብ ዝፈላልየና ዘሰማመዓና ከም ዝበዝሕ ርዱእ እዩ። ኣብ ኩሉ መድረኻትና ከኣ ነዚ ኢና እነንጸባርቕ። እቲ ጸገምና እምበኣር፡ ኣብ ክንዲ ነቲ ዝዓበየ ዘሰማመዓና፡ ነቲ ዝነኣሰ ዝፈላልየና ስለ እነተዓባብዮ እዩ። ካብ ከምዚ ዓይነት ዕንክሊል ክንወጽእ፡ ኣብ ክንዲ ተመዓዳዲና ብዝተፈላለየ ማሕበራዊ ሚድያ ንተፋነን፡ ተቐራሪብካ ምድምማጽ ናይ ግድን ከድልየና እዩ። እንተዘይ ተደማሚጽና ግና ኣይኮነንዶ ብሓባር ተቓሊስና እንጻር ጉጅለ ህግደፍ ከነድምዕ፡ እቲ ዘየቀራርበና ምኽንያት እንታይ ምዃኑን ኣብ መነና ከምዘሎን፡ ብንጹር ምርዳእ እውን ክንጽግም ኢና። ከምኡ እንተኮይኑ ከኣ “መረሓሓቒኦም ዘይፈልጡ ግና ዘይራኸቡ” ክንከውን ኢና። ክንቀራረብ እንኽእልን ዝግበኣናን ክነስና፡ ጐጎበና ሒዝና ኣብ ክንዲ ምድርባይ ተቐራሪብካ ምድምማጽ እዩ እቲ ክንክተሎ ዝግበና መሰረታዊ መፍትሒ። እንተተቐራሪብና እሞ ጉዳይ ህዝብን ሃገርን እነቐድም ሓላፍነታውያን እንተኮይና፡ ነቲ ክንርሓሓቕ እንከለና ክንዲ ጐቦ ኮይኑ ዝረኣየና ፍልልይ፡ ብሕድገትን ምክኣልን ተሰኒና ነወግዶ እሞ፡ ሓደ ኮይና ንምርሽ። ነዚ እንተዘይበቓዕና ከኣ ብውሑዱ መፈላለዪ ኣውሒድናን መሰማምዒ ኣብዚሕናን ኣንጻርቲ መርዛም ጉጅለ ህግደፍ ክንቃለስ ንኽእለሉ ኩነታት ምፍጣር መኸኣልና። እዚ ግና ፈቲና ጸሊእና ምእንቲ ህዝብናን ሃገርናን ከነድሕን፡ ንምክእኣል፡ ሕድገትን ንቕድሚት ምምዕዳውን ግቡእ ቦታ ክንህብ እንተበቒዕና ጥራይ እዩ ክረጋገጽ ዝኽእል።

ካብቲ ኣብ ብዙሕ ኣጋጣምታት እንጠቕሶ፡ ብመንጽርቲ ኣብ ልዕሊ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ዝወርድ ዘሎ ቀጻሊ በደል፡ “ግዜ የብልናን” ዝብል እዩ። እዚ ማለት እቲ ክንገብሮ ዝግበኣና ንክንገብሮ መሰረታዊ ዘይኮነ መህደሚ መንገድታት ብምኽታል፡ ዘይምኽኑይ ግዜ ኣይንብላዕ ማለት እዩ። ክንድታ ዘይተደላይ ግዜ ዘባኸናያ ናይ ህዝብና ሕሰምን መከራን ከኣ ይዛይድ። ሎሚ ከኣ እነሆ ብሰንኪ ዞባዊ ዘይርጉእነት፡ እቲ ህጹጽነት ምውሓስ ለውጢ ኣብ ኤርትራ ዝያዳ ዓሪጉ። ንሕና ከኣ ካብቲ ዝጸንሐ ንቡር ኣካይዳና ብዝተዓጻጸፈ ክንስጉም ይግበኣና። ናይ ክሳብ ሕጂ ኣካይድና ብፍላይ ድልዱል ናይ ሓባር መቃለሲ ድልዱል መድረኽ ኣብ ምውናን፡ በቲ ንቡር ቅልጣፈ እውን ንስጉም የለናን።

ከምቲ ለባማት “እቲ ንወዲ ሰብ ዝተዋህቦ ግዜ ውሱን ስለ ዝኾነ ንጽልኢ ዘይኮነስ ንፍቕሪ ከውዕሎ ይግባእ” ዝብልዎ፡ ጉልበትናን ግዜናን ንህዝብናን ሃገርናን ኣብ ዘየርብሕ ጥራይ ዘይኮነ፡ ተመሊሱ ኣብ ዘኽስር ከነውዕሎ ኣይግበኣናን። እቲ “ተመኩሮ፡ ምመህር እዩ“ ዝበሃል፡ ክስወጠና ይግበኦ። ነዚ ዘይምብቃዕ ሳዕቤኑን ክሳራኡን ክሳብ ክንደይ ምዃኑ እንመሃረሉ ብዙሕ ናትና ኮነ ናይ ካልኦት በዚ ሎሚ ንኸዶ ዘለና ዝሓለፉ ተመኩሮታት ኣለና።

Tuesday, 05 January 2021 17:33

ጨንፈር ሰዲህኤ ኣኼባኡ ኣሰላሲሉ

Written by መድሃኔ ንርኣዮ

ጨንፈር ቁጽሪ 1 ካብ ጨናፍር ሰዲህኤ ኣብ ሽወደን፣ ብዕለት 02 ጥሪ ፈላሚ ኣኼባኡ ናይዚ ሒዝናዮ ዘለና ሓድሽ ዓመት 2021 ኣካይዱ። እቲ ኣኼባ ብዘመናዊ መራካቢ ዝተሰላሰለ ክኸውን ከሎ ዳርጋ መላእ ኣባላት ጨንፈር ዝተሳተፍዎ ምንባሮምውን ተሓቢሩ።

ኣኼባ ካብዘልዐሎም ዛዕባታት!

ሌላ ምስ ሓደስቲ ኣባላት ጨንፈር
ህሉው ኩነታት ሃገርናን ዞባናን
ዓመታዊ ግቡኣት ኣባላት ምርኣይ ዝብሉ ምንባሮምውን ተፈሊጡ።

ኣኼበና ብዝተሰርዑ ዛዕባታት መሰረት፡ ድሕሪ ሕድሕዳዊ ምልላይን ምፍላጥን ቀጥታ ናብቲ ዝያዳ ኣሻቓልን ኣገዳስን ዝኮነ ህሉዊ ኩነታት ሃገርናን ዞናናን ዝብል ካላኣይ ነጥቢ ቅድሚ ምስጋር፡ :መጀመርያ ኣቦ ወንር ጨንፈር ብጻይ መድሃንየ እንቋዕ ናብዚ ኣኼባ ብሰላም መጻእኩም ድሕሪ ምባሉ: ኣኼባና ካብቲ ክግበሮ ዝግብኦ ዝነበረ ዕለት ደንጉዩ ይካየድም ምህላዉ ንኹልና ርዱእ ኮይኑ፡ ናይዚ ቀንዲ ምኽንያት :ብሰሪ‘ቲ ዝተረኽበ ሓዱሽ ወረራ ናይ COVID-19 ን ብሰሪቲ ኣብ ኢትዮጵያ ዝተወልዐ ኲናት ሰልፊ ብልጽግናን ምምሕዳር ክልል ትግራይን ኢድ ኣእታውነት ኢሳያስን ,,,,,,,,,,ተደማሚሩ፡ ግዝየና ክበልዖን ኣድህቦና ናብኡ ከተኩርን ኪኢሉ እዩ:ክብል መእተዊ ቃል ንተሳተፍቲ ኣኼባ ኣቕሪቡ።

ድሕሪኡ ቀጥታ ኣብቲ ዝካየድ ዘሎ ኩናት ናይ ዞናናን ሃገርናን ብምእታው ብፍላይ፡ ቀዳማይ ሚኒስተር ኢትዮጵያ ንኢድ ኣእታውነት ናይ ኢሳያስ ኣብቲ ዝጀመርዎ ናይ ሓባር ኲናት ምኽሓዱን: ካብ ዝተፈላለያ ሃገራትን ማሕበራትን ናይ ዜና ማዕከናትን ብዝተረኽበ ምንጪ ሓበሬታታት ከምዝተረጋገጸ ግን፡ ኣባላት ጨንፈር ብናይ ሓባር ምርድዳእን ዕግበትን ምብጽሖም ይፈለጥ። ብፍለይ ብጻይ መንግስተኣብ ኣስመሮም ኣባል ፈጻሚት ሽማግለን ሓላፊ ቤት ጽሕፈት ውደባን ኣብቲ ኣኼባ ተሳቲፉ ብምንባሩ ብዛያዳ ነቲ ኩውንነት የህብቲሙዎ።

ኣኼባ ጨንፈረ ሰልፊ ዲሞክራሲ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ኣብዚ ዝኸይድ ዘሎ ኲናት ንዘቐመጦ ሚዛንን እውን ደጊፋ። ይኹን እምበር፡ እዚ ዝኸይድ ዘሎ ኲናት እቲ ንልእላውነት ሃገርና ተዋሒጡሉ ዘይፈልጥ ተረፍ መረፍ ናይ ዝሓለፋ መራሕቲ ስርዓታት ኢትዮጵያን ዓሳክሮምን፡ :ኣብ ውሽጢ ሃገርና የእትዩ ምስ ሰራዊት ኢሳያስ ኮዬኑ ንህዝቢ ትግራይ ይቐትልን ይዘምትን ህዝባዊ ትካላት የፍርስን ስለ ዘሎ፡ ንልእላውነትና ኣዝዩ ወይ ብዕምቆት ኣብ ምልክት ሕቶ የእቱ ብምህላዉ፣ ሰልፍና ኪንዮ‘ዚ ኣቐሚጥዎ ዘሎ ሚዛን ክኸይድን ኩሉ ዓቕምታቱ ዝከኣሎ ክገብር ከምዘለዎን ኣኼበኛ ለበዉኡ ኣመሓላሊፋ።

እቲ ምስ ካልኦት ውድባትን ሰልፍታትን ብሓባር ክንሰርሕ እነካይዶ ዘሎና ጻዕርታት ኣብ ቦቱኡ ኮይኑ፡ ንእዋናዊ ጉዕዞ ቃልሲ ሰልፍና ከየዛሕትልን ግዜ ከይበልዕን ኣኼበኛ ስክፍታታቱ ኣስሚሩሉ እዩ::

ኣብ መወዳእታ ተሓዝ ገንዘብ ጨንፈር: ዓመታዊ ግቡእ ኣባላት ሰልፊ ተሓቲቱ ክምልስ ከሎ፡ :ዳርጋ ኩሉ ኣባል ጨንፈር ናይ ዓመት ጉቡኡ ዘማልኤ ከምዝኾነ ሓቢሩ፡ ፈላሚ ኣኼባ ጨንፈር በዚ ደምዲሙ ብሰላም ምፍልላይዩ ተረጋጊጹ።:

Tuesday, 05 January 2021 12:09

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 46 – 5 January 2021

Written by Martin Plaut

Date: 05/01/2021Author: Martin Plaut0 Comments

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

Clashes between Ethiopia and Sudan ended last week, after the Ethiopian army withdrew from the border.
More sources are saying that the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) is retreating from rural areas in Tigray towards the capital Mekelle. This corroborates earlier sources.
Fighting continues to take place around Mekelle. Shelling has been observed near Hagere Selam, 50 kilometers from the regional capital.
Civilians are afraid of ENDF soldiers as they are said to take revenge on civilians after losing a battle.
Mechanised infantry of the ENDF is being moved to Tigray, and is heading to Mekelle.
Satellite pictures show that many fields surrounding the ENDF Northern Command HQ have been burned. In total 12 ha of land has been set on fire.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

The negotiations on the GERD dam between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have collapsed after Sudan did not attend. Sudan wants to give a greater role to AU experts and observers to facilitate negotiations and reconcile opinions. The EU, US, and AU are observing the talks.
A Sudanese radio station has reported that Amhara militias kidnapped and killed herders in Sudan. A source told the radio that “the incident is just part of a series of killings and kidnappings carried out by Ethiopian shifta gangs, supported by Ethiopian government forces.”
The Sudanese government has opened a new refugee camp for Tigrayan refugees. This new camp, in Gedaref state, has a capacity of 30 thousand. 500 refugees are being transferred every day.
An outbreak of coronavirus in one of the refugee camps has slowed down the transfer of refugees to the new camp.
Egypt and Sudan have increased cooperation to crack down on the Muslim Brotherhood. It includes training in the tolerance of Islam, promoting anti extremist discourse, and a joint missionary convoy.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

FEWSNET, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, released its outlook for the coming months (up to May 2021), predicting large food insecurity across Ethiopia. Half the territory will be in the stress or crisis phase. Current and programmed international humanitarian aid are already included in the model.
In Tigray, food security will likely remain at crisis levels until May.
Swarms of locusts have caused large scale damages between October and December. Up to 60% of crops were lost as a result. Many eggs are now hatching in the Somali region. They will remain a threat in the coming months.
FEWSNET predicts below average rainfall in most regions. This will likely result in smaller crop yields and have a negative impact on food security. Low rainfall also encourages locust swarm formation.
The Amhara Chief Commissioner of Police, Abere Adamu, has given a speech on the involvement of Amhara forces in the conflict with Tigray. According to him, Amhara special forces played an important role in positioning ENDF forces prior to the conflict. The President of Amhara was allegedly also aware that a conflict was going to take place.
Amhara continued playing an important role in coordinating and guiding ENDF forces, he stated.
The Amhara Commissioner also said that “deployment of forces had taken place in our borders from east to west. The war started that night, after we have already completed our preparations” implying that the involvement of the Amhara special forces had been prepared and was well on the way before the start of military operations on 4 November 2020.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

A preliminary report by the interim Tigray administration has been released on the damages of the conflict in the region. According to their assessment 4.5 million people need humanitarian assistance. Many houses have been completely destroyed, and 2.2 million people have been internally displaced (IDPs). Half of these IDPs come from Western Tigray.
The status of 78% of the health facilities in Tigray is unknown. Many of the hospitals have been potentially destroyed or pillaged.
At the start of the conflict Tigray counted 40 hospitals and 296 ambulances. The report assesses that only 31 ambulances, in four hospitals, remain. The remaining ambulances were stolen or destroyed.
The University of Mekelle has at least partially been looted. Pictures show that the offices of the College of Veterinary Medicine have been destroyed.
A delegation from Mekelle University is reportedly in Addis Ababa negotiating the future of the university. Discussions are taking place about the functioning of the university and the take over of Adigrat University students and staff. Future international partnerships are also being discussed.
Many people in Mekelle fear leaving their houses. They fear being forcefully conscripted into the army.
Checkpoints have been set up in Tigray, complicating movement in the area.
A source has said that 150 civilians have been killed by Eritrean soldiers near Nebelet town. This would include 4 muslims guarding the local mosque (at Adi Argudi).

International Situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

The British minister for Africa, James Duddridge, has said that the UK government is deeply worried about the situation in Tigray and the wider region. The British government continues to raise the importance of the respect for human rights with the Ethiopian government. The UK also works with other regional actors to find a peaceful solution.

Disclaimer: All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/eastern-sudan-herder-killed-by-ethiopian-militia

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/egypt-sudan-train-imam-religious-muslim-brotherhood.html https://addisstandard.com/news-analysis-amhara-region-police-chief-reveals-how-regions-police-force-guided-federal-steel-clad-mechanized-forces-to-join-war-in-tigray/

In a letter from the Africa Minister, James Duddridge MP he says “We are deeply worried about the risks the conflict poses to civilian lives…. Access to Tigray remains restricted”

https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/desert-locust-bulletin-507-4-january-2020

Tuesday, 05 January 2021 12:05

Ethiopia: Thousands Dead, Millions to Follow

Written by Martin Plaut

Date: 05/01/2021Author: Martin Plaut0 Comments

By Immanuel Alula

Thousands have died in war that is on an identical path to the Yugoslavian war where 140 thousand people died, and four million people were displaced. Ethiopia has 116 million people, or four times the population of Yugoslavia and will have at least four times the number of deaths and displacements not considering ramifications from the disintegration of its regional security role. This means 700 thousand will die and 10 million people will be displaced if action is not taken to end the conflict. In the 1994 Rwandan genocide, 800 thousand people perished, mostly civilians.

What happened to Yugoslavia and how is Ethiopia similar?

After WW2, South Slavic speaking people unified into Yugoslavia, and then divided in 1991 to 2001. Yugoslavia, meaning “South Slavia”, was composed of multiple ethnic groups: Croats, Slovenes, Serbians, ethnic Muslims and more. Under unification they prospered under a socialist-communist government until the oil crisis hit in the 1970s.

Brewing for nearly thirty years was the discontentment with the control ethnic Serbs had over all the other semi-autonomous ethnic regions. It came to the fore in 1991 when Slovenes replaced border guards and took control of their region in the Ten-Day War. This is eerily similar to ethnic Amhara dominance in Ethiopia, and their plans to stifle the autonomy of all the other ethnic regions, most notably the Tigray province; and enforce a policy of Amharization under the banner of Ethiopianism. In Yugoslavia, one by one all the minority ethnic groups fought back and became sovereign nations. The Tigray region is fighting a war with the central government for same reasons, and the other regions will follow as the Croats and other groups in Yugoslavia did. The massacres in Sarajevo against the Bosnians by the Serbs took the world by storm and caused the UN to intervene first via forced negotiations that failed, and then by bombing Belgrade.

Ethiopia is identical to Yugoslavia in that the ethnic majority is refusing to give greater autonomy to all the ethnic regions. It’s fighting a war in the name of national unity and is stifling ethnic federalism (the idea that all ethnic groups have the right to speak their own language in their own schools and courts for example). This is akin to how the Yugoslavian leader Josip Broz Tito crushed ethnic nationalism in minority groups.

The Near Future and Medium Term of Ethiopia

The similarities between Ethiopia and Yugoslavia are striking and if they continue millions will die in Ethiopia. Of Yugoslavia’s population of 24 million 150 thousand died and 2 million where displaced (0.625% dead and 8.3% displaced). Using this data to extrapolate to Ethiopia’s population of 120 million there would be 700 thousand dead and at 10 million displaced (there are already 2 million internally displaced people in Ethiopia). Sadly, the outlook is even more morbid than these estimates, because Ethiopia is the backbone of East African security with military alliances with US (CJTF-HOA), which operates in Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, and Seychelles; fighting ISIS and Al Shaba in Somalia with AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia); facilitating peace agreements for South Sudan and more.

Ethiopia will disintegrate into ethnic regions, and the loss of regional security will cause Sudan, Somalia, Somaliland, Kenya, and Eritrea to collapse or weaken. When it does terrorism will blossom. ISIS, Al Shabab, and other or new terrorist groups will wreak havoc for the region and use it as a training and breeding ground. Then they will plague the world with their violence. We already see the weakening of AMISOM in Somalia and increasing attacks by Al Shabab and the Sudan-Ethiopia border war ensuing.

The long-term future of Ethiopia and the HOA is beyond what we’ve seen in Yugoslavia, where wealthy regional European powers intervened in Slovenia, and then again in Bosnia. The future for the Horn of Africa is terrifyingly unknown and must be avoided at all costs. I project, conservatively, the war to be far more disastrous than the Syrian and Yugoslavian war combined. We must all call on the United States, and other superpowers, to force mediation. The cost of failing to act is millions of deaths and tens of millions of displacements. Thousands have died in a short time, millions will follow.