Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

Clashes between Ethiopia and Sudan ended last week, after the Ethiopian army withdrew from the border.
More sources are saying that the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) is retreating from rural areas in Tigray towards the capital Mekelle. This corroborates earlier sources.
Fighting continues to take place around Mekelle. Shelling has been observed near Hagere Selam, 50 kilometers from the regional capital.
Civilians are afraid of ENDF soldiers as they are said to take revenge on civilians after losing a battle.
Mechanised infantry of the ENDF is being moved to Tigray, and is heading to Mekelle.
Satellite pictures show that many fields surrounding the ENDF Northern Command HQ have been burned. In total 12 ha of land has been set on fire.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

The negotiations on the GERD dam between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have collapsed after Sudan did not attend. Sudan wants to give a greater role to AU experts and observers to facilitate negotiations and reconcile opinions. The EU, US, and AU are observing the talks.
A Sudanese radio station has reported that Amhara militias kidnapped and killed herders in Sudan. A source told the radio that “the incident is just part of a series of killings and kidnappings carried out by Ethiopian shifta gangs, supported by Ethiopian government forces.”
The Sudanese government has opened a new refugee camp for Tigrayan refugees. This new camp, in Gedaref state, has a capacity of 30 thousand. 500 refugees are being transferred every day.
An outbreak of coronavirus in one of the refugee camps has slowed down the transfer of refugees to the new camp.
Egypt and Sudan have increased cooperation to crack down on the Muslim Brotherhood. It includes training in the tolerance of Islam, promoting anti extremist discourse, and a joint missionary convoy.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

FEWSNET, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, released its outlook for the coming months (up to May 2021), predicting large food insecurity across Ethiopia. Half the territory will be in the stress or crisis phase. Current and programmed international humanitarian aid are already included in the model.
In Tigray, food security will likely remain at crisis levels until May.
Swarms of locusts have caused large scale damages between October and December. Up to 60% of crops were lost as a result. Many eggs are now hatching in the Somali region. They will remain a threat in the coming months.
FEWSNET predicts below average rainfall in most regions. This will likely result in smaller crop yields and have a negative impact on food security. Low rainfall also encourages locust swarm formation.
The Amhara Chief Commissioner of Police, Abere Adamu, has given a speech on the involvement of Amhara forces in the conflict with Tigray. According to him, Amhara special forces played an important role in positioning ENDF forces prior to the conflict. The President of Amhara was allegedly also aware that a conflict was going to take place.
Amhara continued playing an important role in coordinating and guiding ENDF forces, he stated.
The Amhara Commissioner also said that “deployment of forces had taken place in our borders from east to west. The war started that night, after we have already completed our preparations” implying that the involvement of the Amhara special forces had been prepared and was well on the way before the start of military operations on 4 November 2020.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

A preliminary report by the interim Tigray administration has been released on the damages of the conflict in the region. According to their assessment 4.5 million people need humanitarian assistance. Many houses have been completely destroyed, and 2.2 million people have been internally displaced (IDPs). Half of these IDPs come from Western Tigray.
The status of 78% of the health facilities in Tigray is unknown. Many of the hospitals have been potentially destroyed or pillaged.
At the start of the conflict Tigray counted 40 hospitals and 296 ambulances. The report assesses that only 31 ambulances, in four hospitals, remain. The remaining ambulances were stolen or destroyed.
The University of Mekelle has at least partially been looted. Pictures show that the offices of the College of Veterinary Medicine have been destroyed.
A delegation from Mekelle University is reportedly in Addis Ababa negotiating the future of the university. Discussions are taking place about the functioning of the university and the take over of Adigrat University students and staff. Future international partnerships are also being discussed.
Many people in Mekelle fear leaving their houses. They fear being forcefully conscripted into the army.
Checkpoints have been set up in Tigray, complicating movement in the area.
A source has said that 150 civilians have been killed by Eritrean soldiers near Nebelet town. This would include 4 muslims guarding the local mosque (at Adi Argudi).

International Situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

The British minister for Africa, James Duddridge, has said that the UK government is deeply worried about the situation in Tigray and the wider region. The British government continues to raise the importance of the respect for human rights with the Ethiopian government. The UK also works with other regional actors to find a peaceful solution.

Disclaimer: All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/eastern-sudan-herder-killed-by-ethiopian-militia

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/egypt-sudan-train-imam-religious-muslim-brotherhood.html https://addisstandard.com/news-analysis-amhara-region-police-chief-reveals-how-regions-police-force-guided-federal-steel-clad-mechanized-forces-to-join-war-in-tigray/

In a letter from the Africa Minister, James Duddridge MP he says “We are deeply worried about the risks the conflict poses to civilian lives…. Access to Tigray remains restricted”

https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/desert-locust-bulletin-507-4-january-2020

JANUARY 5, 2021 MARTIN PLAUT ETHIOPIA, NEWS

Here’s a thing. Was the Addis Standard wrong when it published this story on Monday:

NEWS: MEKELLE CITY INTERIM MAYOR ADMITS PRESENCE AND PARTICIPATION OF ERITREAN FORCES IN TIGRAY CONFLICT

The paper quoted from an interview in which Mayor Atakilti Haileslassie is reported to have said: “the question of the presence of Eritrean forces in Tigray was “a daily question of the interim administration,” and that “relevant military leaders have been asked to give explanations.”

Addis Standard says he goes on to question why the Eritreans were in Tigray: “Why did they come in?” Ataklti asks and goes on to explain “the country’s largest command [the Northern Command], which was supposed to protect the country, was stabbed on its back and they [Eritrean forces] entered because there was no other defense. But it was also announced that they were being withdrawn from the country in a short time. It is a mistake to associate this with the interim administration,” he said.

But is Addis Standard incorrect? The pro-government Eritrean website, Tesfanews certainly thinks so.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1345569690727415808

The two media sources cannot both be correct – so which is?

JANUARY 4, 2021 ERITREA HUB ETHIOPIA, NEWS

Source: Lord Alton

In a letter from the Africa Minister, James Duddridge MP he says “We are deeply worried about the risks the conflict poses to civilian lives…. Access to Tigray remains restricted”

Jan 4, 2021 | Uncategorized

James Duddridge MP
Minister for Africa
King Charles Street
London
SW1A 2AH

Lord Alton of Liverpool
House of Lords
London
SW1A 0PW
www.gov.uk/fcdo

31 December 2020
Dear Lord Alton,

Thank you for your email of 3 December forwarding correspondence from ( your correspondent) about the current situation in the Tigray region of Ethiopia.
We are concerned about the continuing violence in Tigray region and its impact on neighbouring countries, including Eritrea. We are deeply worried about the risks the conflict poses to civilian lives. We are pressing all parties involved to secure immediate humanitarian access and ensure the restoration of basic services.

We are also concerned about the risk these events pose to Ethiopia’s overall stability, its democratic transition and the implementation of a democratising political reform programme – of which the UK has been supportive. The risk that the conflict becomes regionalised, drawing neighbouring countries into the fighting and forcing movements of refugees across borders, is also of grave concern.

The Foreign Secretary spoke with Prime Minister Abiy on 10 November and called for the immediate de-escalation of violence, for the protection of civilians and for unfettered humanitarian access. He reiterated these messages when he met Ethiopian Deputy Prime Minister Demeke on 25 November. I also stressed these points when I spoke with the Ethiopian Ambassador in London on 18 November, and have called publicly for unfettered humanitarian access, in my tweet of 9 December.

Most recently I had a call with Ethiopian Finance Minister Ahmed Shide. Our Ambassador in Addis Ababa continues to engage across the Ethiopian leadership in support of these objectives.

The UK continues to liaise closely with a wide range of regional and international
partners in support of these objectives. The Foreign Secretary spoke on 16 November with Foreign Minister Pandor of South Africa, communicating our support of President Ramaphosa’s efforts towards a political solution. He also discussed approaches with his French and German counterparts in Berlin on 23 November, with President Kenyatta of Kenya on 24 November, and with Prime Minister Hamdok of Sudan on 12 November.

I also reiterated our concerns about the need for an urgent peaceful settlement in Tigray when I spoke with Foreign Minister Kutesa of Uganda on 26 November, and raised the situation in Ethiopia, and the role Ethiopia plays in regional stability, with the Governments of Somalia and Kenya during my visit to those two countries on 9 and 10 December. The Minister for the Middle East and North Africa, James Cleverly MP, has done similarly with counterparts in the Gulf. The situation also remains under consideration by the United Nations Security Council.

The UK is working closely with humanitarian organisations to make sure aid reaches civilians affected by the fighting. UK-funded aid agencies in Tigray are working hard to deliver support in challenging circumstances, including shelter, water and healthcare.

We are tracking the situation and continue to raise the importance of respect for human rights with the Government of Ethiopia and regional leaders on all sides. It is our hope that a resolution is forthcoming, and the UK is engaging with Ethiopian and international partners at the highest level to facilitate this.

Access to Tigray remains restricted. Telecommunications are gradually being restored and I hope that this allows news ( concerning the issues raised by your correspondent) to be obtained.

James Duddridge MP
Minister for Africa

Source: Lord David Alton

Africa Minister says “UK-funded aid agencies in Tigray are working hard to deliver support in challenging circumstances, including shelter, water and healthcare. We are tracking the situation and continue to raise the importance of respect for human rights with the Government of Ethiopia and regional leaders on all sides”

Jan 4, 2021 | Featured parliamentary activity

James Duddridge MP
Minister for Africa
King Charles Street
London
SW1A 2AH

The Lord Alton of Liverpool
House of Lords
London
SW1A 0PW

31 December 2020
Dear Lord Alton,

Thank you for your correspondence of 12 December to the Lord Tariq Ahmad of
Wimbledon, about treatment of Eritrean refugees. I am replying as the Minister for Africa.

We are concerned about the continuing violence in Tigray region and its impact on neighbouring countries, including Eritrea. We are deeply worried about the risks the conflict poses to civilian lives. We are pressing all parties involved to secure immediate

humanitarian access and ensure the restoration of basic services.
We are very concerned at reports that Eritrean troops have entered Ethiopian refugee camps in Tigray and forced a number of refugees to return to Eritrea. If proven, this would be a serious violation of International Humanitarian Law (IHL). Alleged violations of IHL must be investigated to secure respect for IHL and prevent future violations, including as necessary through international criminal tribunals.

The British Ambassador in Eritrea raised these questions with the Eritrean Foreign
Minister on 2 December, who denied that Eritrea is involved militarily in the conflict and categorically denied that Eritrean forces had forcibly returned Eritrean refugees to Eritrea. He also stated that there are no Ethiopian refugees in Eritrea. Due to the
ongoing restricted access for humanitarian agencies, it has not yet been possible to
fully corroborate these reports.

The UK has been consistent in calling for free and unfettered humanitarian access. We welcome news of an ICRC convoy arriving in Mekele over the weekend of 12/13
December. Ongoing impediments to access faced by relief actors puts civilians at risk in Tigray. All parties must ensure civilians are not exposed to unnecessary harm. Urgentaccess is required so that humanitarian support can be provided and delivery of essential services must resume immediately.

The UK is a major and longstanding humanitarian donor to Ethiopia. We recognise the early efforts by the UN to address the crisis in Tigray. The UK is working closely with humanitarian organisations to make sure aid reaches civilians affected by the fighting.

UK-funded aid agencies in Tigray are working hard to deliver support in challenging
circumstances, including shelter, water and healthcare. We are tracking the situation
and continue to raise the importance of respect for human rights with the Government of Ethiopia and regional leaders on all sides. It is our hope that a resolution is forthcoming, and the UK is engaging with Ethiopian and international partners at the highest level to facilitate this.

James Duddridge MP
Minister for Africa