Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa.  Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

• The ENDF has announced that next to the nine officials that it captured, they have also killed four other Tigrayan officials. The officials killed are the TPLF spokesman, the former head of the Tigray finance bureau, and two other core members. The ENDF did not detail how the four men were killed.
• The ENDF reinforcements that were seen moving towards Mekelle at the beginning of the week have reached Alamata. The force consists of 8 tanks, 20 buses, and 5 heavy trucks.
• Heavy gunfire has been reported in Mekelle and its outskirts. Heavy artillery bombing was reported in Wukro, North of Mekelle.
• Report that Maryam Tsiyon Church has been attacked (local people believe with the aim to take the Ark of Covenant to Addis Ababa). Hundreds of people hiding in the Maryam Tsiyon Church were brought out and shot on the square in front. The number of people killed is reported as 750.
• Satellite images have detected a fire in Baeker, Humera. Fighting has been reported in that area.
• Reported in social media that the Sudanese army would have evidence of participation of Eritrean troops in the war between Ethiopia and Sudan over the disputed border area, Al-Fashqa.
• Reported that Eritrean troops are currently in all administrative zones in Tigray, except the Southern zone. This includes: Tekeze area, Adigoshu, Maywoini (Geyts), Fresalem (Edris), Adebay, Ousman, Jebel, Humera, Rawyan, Bereket (Western); Shire, Endebagina, Selekleka, Adihageray, Adinebried, Sheraro, Semema (North Western); Wukro Maray, Aksum, Adwa, Rama, Egela, Zana (Central); Adigrat, Edaga Hamus, Wukro, Hawzen (Eastern).
• Extreme looting reported in the Gheralta area, and Hawzen has been seriously damaged (‘destroyed’).
• Another list of names of civilian victims in the districts of Gheralta and Enderta (Tigray) has emerged. Reportedly, the victims were killed by Eritrean troops. All the names on the list are of men.
• Reported that Eritrean soldiers use Ethiopian military uniforms as disguise  but local people recognise them easily as they speak Tigrigna with an Eritrean accent. Mostly, especially in Western Tigray, the Eritrean troops are wearing the uniforms of the Eritrean army, according to reports.
• A second  humanitarian worker from Dutch humanitarian NGO ZOA has also been killed in the Hitsats refugee camp, where heavy fighting is reported.
• According to the UN OCHA fighting in Tigray continues, among other locations, in the Mekelle Periphery, Shire, and Shiraro. The fighting has stopped the deployment of some of its missions.
• Unconfirmed: Sebhat Nega, 86, the co-founder of the TPLF,  was arrested in a remote valley, together with defected officers from the Northern Command. Sebhat Nega, also referred to as ‘Aboy Sebhat’ (‘father Sebhat’) is a retired political intellectual, former director of the Tigray Endowment Fund and director of a think tank, the Foreign Relations Strategic Study Institute in Addis Ababa until 2018.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

• The Vice-Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, General M.H. Dugalo (‘Hemiti’ or ‘Hamediti’) met with Eritrean President Isaias in Asmara on Friday. The visit followed accusations that Eritrea is involved in the war on the Ethiopia-Sudan border. The visit was reported as a failure.
• President Ramaphosa of South Africa has said that the AU appointed Special Envoys on Tigray will visit the Tigray area soon.
• President Kiir of South Sudan has called on the Sudanese government to reach a settled negotiation with Ethiopia. He made the comments following a meeting with al-Din Kabbashi, a member of the Sovereign Council, and Omer Gamar Eldin, the acting Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Reported International dimension (as confirmed per 08 January)

• The Global Center for the Responsibility to Protect is urging states with significant military ties to Ethiopia, to withhold military assistance until all war crimes and human rights violations have been investigated, and their perpetrators held accountable.
• A demonstration has taken place in The Hague,  the Netherlands, organised by Tigray and Eritrean members of the diaspora, demanding that Eritrean troops leave Tigray immediately.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 08 January)

• UN OCHA states in a report that the situation in Tigray remains volatile. While, it believes that the situation has been improving, access to food, water, and medical supplies remains limited. The report has identified that looting of humanitarian supplies and equipment continues in some areas, including Kuiha and Lachi.
• The UN OCHA report identifies that 4.5 million people needing emergency assistance, of which 2.2 million IDPs. However only 77 thousand people in Mekelle and 25 thousand in Mai Ayni and Adi Harush refugee camps have received food support from the UN and its partners.
• UN OCHA reports that it still does not have access to Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps. Bureaucratic constraints and lack of security has made it more difficult to access many areas of Tigray.
• Sources disagree with UN OCHA’s assessment that things are going back to normal in Mekelle, Alamata, and Mehoni. Fighting has still been taking place in the area, and people are being prevented from leaving. Moreover, a critical lack of many supplies still exists in the area.
• Demtsi Woyane, DW, a TPLF aligned broadcast, has released further footage of a heavily looted buildings of Mekelle University. Multiple departments have been completely emptied.
• Since mid-November the accounts of EFFORT, the umbrella to which many companies in Tigray belong, have been frozen and reports show that its huge assets are now being ‘redistributed’ in Ethiopia.

Refugee Situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

• Ethiopian refugees in Sudan have told The World on their experiences in the conflict. A witness recounts how on his flight to Sudan he Ethiopian Federal Troops were accompanied by Eritrean soldiers. They proceeded to shoot his son twice and left him to die.

Disclaimer: All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.pri.org/stories/2021-01-05/sudan-ethiopian-refugees-tell-their-stories

https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-tigray-region-humanitarian-update-situation-report-6-january-2021

https://africanarguments.org/2021/01/eritrea-in-the-tigray-war-what-we-know-and-why-it-might-backfire/

https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/finance-and-policy/tigray-conflict-could-delay-grand-renaissance-dam-negotiations/ https://www.globalr2p.org/publications/atrocity-alert-no-234-ethiopia-china-and-niger/

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa.  Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

• Clashes between Ethiopia and Sudan ended last week, after the Ethiopian army withdrew from the border.
• More sources are saying that the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) is retreating from rural areas in Tigray towards the capital Mekelle. This corroborates earlier sources.
• Fighting continues to take place around Mekelle. Shelling has been observed near Hagere Selam, 50 kilometers from the regional capital.
• Civilians are afraid of ENDF soldiers as they are said to take revenge on civilians after losing a battle.
• Mechanised infantry of the ENDF is being moved to Tigray, and is heading to Mekelle.
• Satellite pictures show that many fields surrounding the ENDF Northern Command HQ have been burned. In total 12 ha of land has been set on fire.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 4  January 2021)

• The negotiations on the GERD dam between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have collapsed after Sudan did not attend. Sudan wants to give a greater role to AU experts and observers to facilitate negotiations and reconcile opinions. The EU, US, and AU are observing the talks.
• A Sudanese radio station has reported that Amhara militias kidnapped and killed herders in Sudan. A source told the radio that “the incident is just part of a series of killings and kidnappings carried out by Ethiopian shifta gangs, supported by Ethiopian government forces.”
• The Sudanese government has opened a new refugee camp for Tigrayan refugees. This new camp, in Gedaref state, has a capacity of 30 thousand. 500 refugees are being transferred every day.
• An outbreak of coronavirus in one of the refugee camps has slowed down the transfer of refugees to the new camp.
• Egypt and Sudan have increased cooperation to crack down on the Muslim Brotherhood. It includes training in the tolerance of Islam, promoting anti extremist discourse, and a joint missionary convoy.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

• FEWSNET, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, released its outlook for the coming months (up to May 2021), predicting large food insecurity across Ethiopia. Half the territory will be in the stress or crisis phase. Current and programmed international humanitarian aid are already included in the model.
• In Tigray, food security will likely remain at crisis levels until May.
• Swarms of locusts have caused large scale damages between October and December. Up to 60% of crops were lost as a result. Many eggs are now hatching in the Somali region. They will remain a threat in the coming months.
• FEWSNET predicts below average rainfall in most regions. This will likely result in smaller crop yields and have a negative impact on food security. Low rainfall also encourages locust swarm formation.
• The Amhara Chief Commissioner of Police, Abere Adamu, has given a speech on the involvement of Amhara forces in the conflict with Tigray. According to him, Amhara special forces played an important role in positioning ENDF forces prior to the conflict. The President of Amhara was allegedly also aware that a conflict was going to take place.
• Amhara continued playing an important role in coordinating and guiding ENDF forces, he stated.
• The Amhara Commissioner also said that “deployment of forces had taken place in our borders from east to west. The war started that night, after we have already completed our preparations” implying that the involvement of the Amhara special forces had been prepared and was well on the way before the start of military operations on 4 November 2020.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

• A preliminary report by the interim Tigray administration has been released on the damages of the conflict in the region. According to their assessment 4.5 million people need humanitarian assistance. Many houses have been completely destroyed, and 2.2 million people have been internally displaced (IDPs). Half of these IDPs come from Western Tigray.
• The status of 78% of the health facilities in Tigray is unknown. Many of the hospitals have been potentially destroyed or pillaged.
• At the start of the conflict Tigray counted 40 hospitals and 296 ambulances. The report assesses that only 31 ambulances, in four hospitals, remain. The remaining ambulances were stolen or destroyed.
• The University of Mekelle has at least partially been looted. Pictures show that the offices of the College of Veterinary Medicine have been destroyed.
• A delegation from Mekelle University is reportedly in Addis Ababa negotiating the future of the university. Discussions are taking place about the functioning of the university and the take over of Adigrat University students and staff. Future international partnerships are also being discussed.
• Many people in Mekelle fear leaving their houses. They fear being forcefully conscripted into the army.
• Checkpoints have been set up in Tigray, complicating movement in the area.
• A source has said that 150 civilians have been killed by Eritrean soldiers near Nebelet town. This would include 4 muslims guarding the local mosque (at Adi Argudi).

International Situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

• The British minister for Africa, James Duddridge, has said that the UK government is deeply worried about the situation in Tigray and the wider region. The British government continues to raise the importance of the respect for human rights with the Ethiopian government. The UK also works with other regional actors to find a peaceful solution.

Disclaimer: All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/eastern-sudan-herder-killed-by-ethiopian-militia

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/egypt-sudan-train-imam-religious-muslim-brotherhood.html https://addisstandard.com/news-analysis-amhara-region-police-chief-reveals-how-regions-police-force-guided-federal-steel-clad-mechanized-forces-to-join-war-in-tigray/

https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/desert-locust-bulletin-507-4-january-2020

By Immanuel Alula

Thousands have died in war that is on an identical path to the Yugoslavian war where 140 thousand people died, and four million people were displaced. Ethiopia has 116 million people, or four times the population of Yugoslavia and will have at least four times the number of deaths and displacements not considering ramifications from the disintegration of its regional security role. This means 700 thousand will die and 10 million people will be displaced if action is not taken to end the conflict. In the 1994 Rwandan genocide, 800 thousand people perished, mostly civilians.

What happened to Yugoslavia and how is Ethiopia similar?

After WW2, South Slavic speaking people unified into Yugoslavia, and then divided in 1991 to 2001. Yugoslavia, meaning “South Slavia”, was composed of multiple ethnic groups: Croats, Slovenes, Serbians, ethnic Muslims and more. Under unification they prospered under a socialist-communist government until the oil crisis hit in the 1970s.

Brewing for nearly thirty years was the discontentment with the control ethnic Serbs had over all the other semi-autonomous ethnic regions. It came to the fore in 1991 when Slovenes replaced border guards and took control of their region in the Ten-Day War. This is eerily similar to ethnic Amhara dominance in Ethiopia, and their plans to stifle the autonomy of all the other ethnic regions, most notably the Tigray province; and enforce a policy of Amharization under the banner of Ethiopianism. In Yugoslavia, one by one all the minority ethnic groups fought back and became sovereign nations. The Tigray region is fighting a war with the central government for same reasons, and the other regions will follow as the Croats and other groups in Yugoslavia did. The massacres in Sarajevo against the Bosnians by the Serbs took the world by storm and caused the UN to intervene first via forced negotiations that failed, and then by bombing Belgrade.

Ethiopia is identical to Yugoslavia in that the ethnic majority is refusing to give greater autonomy to all the ethnic regions. It’s fighting a war in the name of national unity and is stifling ethnic federalism (the idea that all ethnic groups have the right to speak their own language in their own schools and courts for example). This is akin to how the Yugoslavian leader Josip Broz Tito crushed ethnic nationalism in minority groups.

The Near Future and Medium Term of Ethiopia

The similarities between Ethiopia and Yugoslavia are striking and if they continue millions will die in Ethiopia. Of Yugoslavia’s population of 24 million 150 thousand died and 2 million where displaced (0.625% dead and 8.3% displaced). Using this data to extrapolate to Ethiopia’s population of 120 million there would be 700 thousand dead and at 10 million displaced (there are already 2 million internally displaced people in Ethiopia). Sadly, the outlook is even more morbid than these estimates, because Ethiopia is the backbone of East African security with military alliances with US (CJTF-HOA), which operates in Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, and Seychelles; fighting ISIS and Al Shaba in Somalia with AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia); facilitating peace agreements for South Sudan and more.

Ethiopia will disintegrate into ethnic regions, and the loss of regional security will cause Sudan, Somalia, Somaliland, Kenya, and Eritrea to collapse or weaken. When it does terrorism will blossom. ISIS, Al Shabab, and other or new terrorist groups will wreak havoc for the region and use it as a training and breeding ground. Then they will plague the world with their violence. We already see the weakening of AMISOM in Somalia and increasing attacks by Al Shabab and the Sudan-Ethiopia border war ensuing.

The long-term future of Ethiopia and the HOA is beyond what we’ve seen in Yugoslavia, where wealthy regional European powers intervened in Slovenia, and then again in Bosnia. The future for the Horn of Africa is terrifyingly unknown and must be avoided at all costs. I project, conservatively, the war to be far more disastrous than the Syrian and Yugoslavian war combined. We must all call on the United States, and other superpowers, to force mediation. The cost of failing to act is millions of deaths and tens of millions of displacements. Thousands have died in a short time, millions will follow.