On 25th November the blog below was posted, outlining suggestions that Eritrean and Ethiopian troops might be sent to Somalia, following the deal between the leaders of the three countries in Bahir Dar.

There were few details, but now the Reuters newsagency has seen a motion for impeachment of the Somali President, Mohamed Abdullahi.

Why is he being impeached? For allegedly having “secretly signed agreements with other countries including Ethiopia and Eritrea. The agreements touched on the use of Somali ports and economic and security cooperation, it said.”

Reports are beginning to circulate that as part of the deal President Isaias struck with Somalia in Ethiopia, he is preparing to deploy troops to support the government in Mogadishu.

There is no confirmation at the moment that this is about to take place. But, as Kjetil Tronvoll remarks, if it did take place it would mean an end to plans to reduce the length of National Service, which currently continues indefinitely.

Sending Eritrean troops to Somalia would – of course – solve one of President Isaias’s dilemmas: what to do with thousands of demobilised young men and women, for whom he has no work. Having them hang around towns, including Asmara, could prove very difficult. With nothing to do and all day to do it they might become restless and law and order could evaporate.

Eritrea’s forgotten wars

Far better to send them on another foreign adventure.

This would not be Eritrea’s first international intervention: it has had a number of forgotten wars since independence.

These include conflicts in:

• Sudan
• Somalia
• Congo
• Djibouti
• Yemen

Back into Somalia

President Isaias invervened in Somalia in the past.

The previous occassion followed the re-location of Somalia’s Islamic Courts to Eritrea in 2007, after the invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia.

Eritrea subsequently sent advisers and military equipment to the Islamist group, al-Shabaab, which arose out of the Islamic Courts.

As the UN Monitors put it in their 2011 report to the Security Council: “Asmara’s continuing relationship with Al-Shabaab, for example, appears designed to legitimize and embolden the group rather than to curb its extremist orientation or encourage its participation in a political process. Moreover, Eritrean involvement in Somalia reflects a broader pattern of intelligence and special operations activity, including training, financial and logistical support to armed opposition groups in Djibouti, Ethiopia, the Sudan and possibly Uganda in violation of Security Council resolution 1907 (2009).”

In President Isaias’s own words

Although the president later denied supporting Al-Shabaab, this was not always his position. As he declared in 2009: “We support all resistance from anyone in Somalia.”

This came in an interview with Channel 4 – the independent British news channel.

This is what he said:

In an interview with Channel 4 News Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki defended Somalia’s militants saying that as his country supported all Somalis it would be a “mistake” to limit this support to “one or two groups.”

“We support all resistance from anyone in Somalia,” he said.

“Somalis have worked with outside forces for money for fame for what have you. They have collaborated with outsiders, we are against collaborators – we are with Somalis.”

“You may not agree with the ideology of al-Shabaab, Somalis may not agree with the ideology of al-Shabab but it’s up to them to have their own ideology. You need to respect their choice.

“Categorising anyone political group as terrorist isn’t qualified as a common understanding of that qualification. Now, anyone in any government will call an opposition a terrorist organisation.”

Mr Afwerki claimed that the United States and its allies had “created a situation of chaos in Somalia by providing weapons” to warlords but that he didn’t think a culture of blame was the solution.

“I wish we had the resource and we had the ability to support Somali resistance in any way. Physically, it hasn’t been possible. Theoretically, we may want to see that happen.

“We don’t want to get into this cycle of accusations and counter-accusations on who’s being supplying this or that faction in Somalia for the last 20 years.

“We would like resistance to succeed in Somalia and Somalis to be left alone to find a solution for their own problems without an external intervention.

“If you agree to that, pull out from Somalia. Don’t supply weapons to warlords. Don’t divide and weaken Somalia. You leave Somalia to Somalis and Somalis will find a solution for themselves. As long as this conflict continues, we remain supportive of the resistance in Somalia in any form.”

Intervention in 2019

If the report quoted at the start of this article is correct, and the Eritreans go into Somalia again, it will be on the other side.

They will be backing President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo” – not Al-Shabaab.

However this would not alter one fact: young Eritreans would be dying in a foreign land.

That has been the pattern of foreign policy followed by President Isaias since 1991: he is unlikely to change.

 National flags are seen along the road to Eritrea in Zalambessa, northern Ethiopia, in September before a border reopening ceremony. Two land border crossings between Ethiopia and Eritrea were reopened for the first time in nearly 20 years. AFP/Getty Images

About a mile from the Eritrean border in Zalambessa, Ethiopia, there’s a small building made of corrugated metal.

There’s not much inside, except for some sleeping mats and clay pots for coffee. But dozens of Eritreans have made it into a home, while they wait for the Red Cross to take them to refugee camps.

Over the past year, Ethiopia has stunned the world with its democratic reforms and warming relationship with neighboring Eritrea. The two countries have formally ended their 20-year conflict and reopened land crossings to allow people and goods to move freely between them. Now, a big question fills the air in the region: Will the dramatic transformation in Ethiopia spread to Eritrea, which is often referred to as the North Korea of Africa?

Sirak, 17, came to Ethiopia from Eritrea more than a month after the border opened in September. He wants only his first name used because he is afraid Eritrean authorities could seek retribution for his actions or criticism. Now, he spends his time walking around Zalambessa, marveling at the lack of troops on the streets and the frankness of conversations.

He says his family’s home in Eritrea was demolished by the government, and police wanted to know why they had built the house without permission.

“The police were coming every day, so everyone was hiding in the bush,” he said.Forced evictions and home demolitions have been a well-documented form of political retribution in Eritrea, whose government has never held an election and has been accused of brutal human rights abuses almost since its independence in 1993.

Asked if he believes things can change in Eritrea, Sirak demurs.

“It’s impossible,” he says. “It won’t change.”

Agents of change

Sirak appears meek and fearful compared with today’s Ethiopians, who are celebrating their newfound freedoms with swagger. Long under authoritarian rule, now Ethiopians can gather in groups to talk freely. They can criticize their government without fear they’ll be arrested.

Many Ethiopians along the border say Eritrea has to change also. They say when Eritreans come to Ethiopia, they will experience a freer society and they will demand the same at home.

“It’s not fair to make that comparison,” says Salem Solomon, an Eritrean-American journalist who covers the two countries for Voice of America. Ethiopia and Eritrea have completely different political systems, she says.

Salem lived in Eritrea until 2007; she went through military training and worked for the Information Ministry before she came to the United States. In Eritrea, says Salem, the government is omnipresent — the command economy and mandatory military service are just some of the ways it controls people’s lives. Salem says the government stays in power by doling out unpredictable punishments. That creates an atmosphere of intense fear.

“Even those who feel like they are so loyal and [are] vocal [about their] support for the government,” even they, she says, are not safe.

Awet Weldemichael, who studies Eritrea at Queen’s University in Canada, says another reason to be skeptical about any potential uprising is that Eritrea has been “hemorrhaging” youth.

Eritreans have been leaving the country by the thousands since it gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993. Scholars estimate that a third of Eritreans live outside the country. And since the borders with Ethiopia reopened in September, about 10,000 Eritreans have sought asylum in Ethiopia.

“And so in light of that … the agents of change are not there,” says Awet.

If change is to come, he says, it is unlikely to happen the way it did in Ethiopia, forced by years of protests. Instead, if change comes, it will most likely have to be pushed from the top.

Awet does warn, however, that Eritrea is such a closed country, it’s hard to make predictions.

“What I can tell you confidently,” he says, “is that the current course is unsustainable for Eritrea.”

In November, the United Nations lifted sanctions against Eritrea. But that’s unlikely to help, because it was mostly a weapons ban. Eritrea remains one of the poorest countries on the continent. Most of its people live below the poverty line, and 80 percent are subsistence farmers in a land susceptible to droughts. Over the years, Awet says, the population has been decimated by migration and by mass incarceration, and many helpful institutions have been destroyed or have ceased to exist.

A better life

In Badme, a border town about 200 miles west of Zalambessa, the border crossing is not yet officially open. Eritrean officials have warned that the road into Ethiopia still contains land mines.

But one Eritrean mother made her way across anyway. She was trying to hitch a ride back to Eritrea, so she sat right on the border, caressing the cheek of her 9-year-old boy.

She’s too afraid of the Eritrean government to share her name. Seven months ago, while she was cooking, her son ran away to Ethiopia with a friend.

As soon as it became possible, she packed up her things and came to look for him. She found him at a refugee camp outside Badme.

She says her boy was not the only kid fleeing Eritrea. She has seen many small children leave their homes and families behind.

“They’re too young to know anything about the government or democracy,” she says. “But what they know is that there is a better life outside of Eritrea.”

After the visit to Eritrea by the USA’s top Africa diplomat, Tibor Nagy, question have continued about what was discussed – in particular what he did about the US citizens imprisoned by the Eritrean government and the US Embassy employees held in detention by President Isaias.

In telephonic interviews Mr Nagy, the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, refused to go futher than saying that: “the full range of interests between the two countries were discussed” including the human rights situation in Eritrea. He said he wanted relations to develop until they were as “warm and cordial” as they were with Ethiopia, but that US – Eritrean relations would be develop “step by step” and “take time.”

Eritreans working for the US Embassy in Asmara were arrested in 2001. Other imprisoned include Ciham Ali Abdu, who has been held since 2012.

An undated photograph of Ciham Ali Abdu. Ciham is believed to be imprisoned in Eritrea. She was last seen in 2012.

WASHINGTON — Ciham Ali Abdu has brown eyes and a broad smile. As a teenager, she found inspiration in art, fashion and language. Growing up in Asmara, Eritrea, she enjoyed time with friends, music and swimming.

In family photos, Ciham appears carefree. She poses casually for the camera, her hair pulled into a braided ponytail.

But other realities were just out of frame.

Ciham Ali Abdu was born in Los Angeles, California, and grew up in Eritrea. As a child, she enjoyed swimming, fashion and music.

After a border conflict with Ethiopia ended in an uneasy truce, Eritrea was on a war footing, and the authoritarian government was prone to punish anyone who challenged the president’s grip on power.

That desire for retribution would thrust Ciham into the crosshairs, her family says.

‘Relentless grief’

Ciham was born in Los Angeles, California, but moved to Asmara, the capital, as a young child. Eritrea isn’t a rich country, but Ciham lived a comfortable life.

Her father, Ali Abdu Ahmed, was a high-ranking government official and trusted confidant to President Isaias Afwerki. In 2012, when Ciham was 15, her father was Eritrea’s information minister. He shared updates about the country with the world and articulated key policy points.

Suddenly, and for unknown reasons, Ali had a falling out with Isaias, setting off a chain reaction that would leave the top minister’s family broken.

In November 2012, Ali fled to Australia to seek asylum.

Weeks after his defection, Ciham attempted to cross the border into Sudan. She was apprehended, and her family has neither seen nor heard from her since.

Human rights groups, along with Ciham’s family, believe she has been languishing in prison.

Day after day, they wait anxiously for news: information about her whereabouts; clues about her health; a sign that she is still alive.

After her father, the information minister, fled Eritrea, 15-year-old Ciham attempted to cross the border into Sudan. Authorities apprehended her, and she hasn’t been seen since.

Six years later, they have heard nothing. The Eritrean government refuses to acknowledge Ciham’s American citizenship — or her mere existence. The U.S. government has been similarly non-committal, acknowledging only that they have seen “reports” about Ciham’s case.

For Ciham’s family, the total information blackout has added to the ongoing anguish.

“It is excruciating, and relentless grief and agony,” Saleh Younis, Ciham’s uncle, told VOA in an email response.

Pressure points

Ciham’s family believes the Eritrean government won’t release her without outside pressure. But the U.S. forfeited a major bargaining chip when U.N. sanctions were lifted without preconditions, Saleh said.

“I don’t understand how the U.S. gave up its sole leverage — sanctions — unilaterally, without demanding to know the whereabouts not just of Ciham Ali but its embassy employees.” Those employees have been missing even longer, Saleh added.

But the United States could still push for answers, he said, through its relationships with countries that influence Eritrea — Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates.

“[The U.S.] should consistently raise this issue just as it would if, say, an American religious leader was to disappear,” Saleh said.

Incommunicado

Neither arbitrary arrest nor indefinite detention is uncommon in Eritrea, where the government treats dissent and perceived threats to its authority with swift, harsh justice. In a 2016 report, a United Nations commission of inquiry concluded that dissidents face systemic torture, enslavement and reprisals against family members.

Ciham is one of many prisoners in Eritrea, along with journalists and political figures, who have been jailed without charges or a trial. What makes Ciham’s case unique is the complete lack of information about her whereabouts or well-being.

But Ciham’s case is unique, Saleh said, because no reliable information about her whereabouts or well-being has emerged.

“My dad was frequently arrested, and my younger brother is arrested. In each case, we got information from people who used to be in prison with them, or saw them when they were being hospitalized. But with Ciham, she is just marking her sixth year in prison, and there is nothing.”

The rare communications the family receives from regime loyalists and unknown messengers involve upsetting details about what has happened to Ciham, but Saleh said it’s impossible to separate what might be legitimate from what he called “sadistic” messages designed to further punish Ciham’s loved ones.

Immediate and unconditional release

Ahead of a high-level U.S. delegation to Asmara led by Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy earlier this week, the international rights group Amnesty International called on the United States to request the release of Ciham and other prisoners detained without trial or legal representation.

“We are demanding that the U.S. envoy shall prioritize human rights, and shall not leave human rights concerns as expendable when dealing with political interests with the Eritrean government,” Fisseha Tekle, a human rights researcher with Amnesty International, told VOA.

Recent diplomatic advancements in the Horn of Africa might create new opportunities to push for Ciham’s release. So far, though, neither the U.S. nor Eritrean government has commented on her case.

“Assistant Secretary Nagy must make robust representations to push for the immediate and unconditional release of both Ciham and all those detained across the country solely for peacefully exercising their human rights,” said Joan Nyanyuki, Amnesty International’s director for East Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes.

Fisseha underscored that Amnesty’s concerns extend beyond Ciham.

“Including Ciham, there are so many people who have been arrested without trial, without charge, for so many years, and the condition of their arrest — it’s not even known,” he said.

On a conference call for media Thursday, Nagy didn’t address Ciham’s case, and neither the U.S. nor the Eritrean government responded to interview requests for this story.

With no leads to follow or diplomatic breakthroughs to draw hope from, Ciham’s family can, for now, only find comfort in their memories, and a collection of photographs that depict an innocent girl unaware of the upheaval that would soon engulf her.